Challenge League predictions

5 matches ahead, from 23 October to 25 October, each with the model's win / draw / win split and most likely score. The clearest favourite: FC Winterthur, 69% against Stade Nyonnais. How the model works.

Friday 23 October — 3 matches

17:30 UTC FC WIL 1900 vs Rapperswil — model 43% / 26% / 31%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.33 · 3.85 · 3.23. Evenly matched
17:30 UTC Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Neuchatel Xamax FC — model 59% / 24% / 17%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.69 · 4.17 · 5.88. One-sided: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
18:15 UTC FC Winterthur vs Stade Nyonnais — model 69% / 20% / 11%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.45 · 5.00 · 9.09. One-sided: FC Winterthur

Saturday 24 October — 1 match

16:00 UTC FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge — model 60% / 25% / 15%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.67 · 4.00 · 6.67. One-sided: FC Aarau

Sunday 25 October — 1 match

15:30 UTC Yverdon Sport vs SC Kriens — model 48% / 27% / 25%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.08 · 3.70 · 4.00. Evenly matched

Last round: the model's hits and misses

9 October: the model called the result of 2 of 5 matches.

SC Kriens 1–1 FC WIL 1900 — the model said 57% / 24% / 19%, most likely 2-0: result missed.
Rapperswil 0–3 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy — the model said 31% / 28% / 41%, most likely 0-1: result correct.
Neuchatel Xamax FC 3–0 FC Winterthur — the model said 34% / 27% / 39%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
Étoile Carouge 0–2 Yverdon Sport — the model said 31% / 30% / 39%, most likely 0-1: result correct.
Stade Nyonnais 2–1 FC Aarau — the model said 16% / 26% / 58%, most likely 0-1: result missed.