Étoile Carouge
vs
SC Kriens
Challenge League prediction
Our model says: Étoile Carouge 0–1 SC Kriens
The model makes it 32% Étoile Carouge, 30% draw, 38% SC Kriens — fair odds of 3.13, 3.33 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Étoile Carouge 1.08, SC Kriens 1.23.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Low.
Edge to SC Kriens: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Étoile Carouge are 9th on 9 points from 10 games; SC Kriens are 4th on 15 points from 10 games — Challenge League.
- Étoile Carouge have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Yverdon Sport.
- SC Kriens are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to FC WIL 1900.
- Last 5 meetings: SC Kriens 3 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 18 September 2026, ended SC Kriens 4–1 Étoile Carouge.
More Challenge League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Étoile Carouge vs SC Kriens
Has the model earned this number?
It puts SC Kriens at 38% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Étoile Carouge vs SC Kriens
Étoile Carouge
- L0-2Yverdon Sport9 October 2026
- L1-4away to SC Kriens18 September 2026
- L0-1FC Winterthur11 September 2026
- D1-1FC WIL 19004 September 2026
- L0-3away to Stade Lausanne-Ouchy1 September 2026
SC Kriens
- D1-1FC WIL 19009 October 2026
- W4-1Étoile Carouge18 September 2026
- D2-2away to FC Aarau12 September 2026
- L0-2Stade Lausanne-Ouchy4 September 2026
- D1-1away to Rapperswil1 September 2026
What these results say
- Étoile Carouge did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Étoile Carouge conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- SC Kriens conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- SC Kriens failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- SC Kriens scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Étoile Carouge | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 9 |
| 4 | SC Kriens | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Étoile Carouge vs SC Kriens
- 18 September 2026SC Kriens 4–1 Étoile CarougeChallenge League
- 9 March 2024SC Kriens 1–3 Étoile Carouge1. Liga Promotion
- 3 September 2023Étoile Carouge 4–0 SC Kriens1. Liga Promotion
- 15 April 2023SC Kriens 2–0 Étoile Carouge1. Liga Promotion
- 8 October 2022Étoile Carouge 0–2 SC Kriens1. Liga Promotion
The two sides
Étoile Carouge carry a model rating of 5.98 against 6.19 for SC Kriens. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.08 goals for Étoile Carouge and 1.23 for SC Kriens. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Étoile Carouge rate 0.36 in attack and 2.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; SC Kriens rate 0.49 and 1.84.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Étoile Carouge a 0% chance of the title and SC Kriens 0.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SC Kriens the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Étoile Carouge against 1.23 for SC Kriens. Étoile Carouge's attack/defence rating is 0.36/2.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.84 for SC Kriens.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Étoile Carouge at home · SC Kriens away
League matches only, Challenge League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Challenge League matches this season: Étoile Carouge 10, SC Kriens 10.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Étoile Carouge
- at FC Winterthur7 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 18%
- at Neuchatel Xamax FC20 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 24%
- vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy27 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 24%
- at FC WIL 19005 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 27%
SC Kriens
- vs Rapperswil6 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 53%
- at Stade Lausanne-Ouchy20 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 21%
- vs FC Aarau27 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 36%
- at Stade Nyonnais5 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 49%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.