Lausanne
vs
FC Thun
Super League prediction
Our model says: Lausanne 1–2 FC Thun
The model makes it 32% Lausanne, 27% draw, 41% FC Thun — fair odds of 3.13, 3.70 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Lausanne 1.33, FC Thun 1.59.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to FC Thun: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Lausanne are bottom on 6 points from 10 games; FC Thun are 9th on 10 points from 10 games — Super League.
- Lausanne have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to FC St. Gallen.
- FC Thun have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat away to FC Zurich.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 2 September 2026, ended FC Thun 0–0 Lausanne.
More Swiss Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lausanne vs FC Thun
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Thun at 41% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Lausanne vs FC Thun
Lausanne
- L0-1away to FC St. Gallen11 October 2026
- L0-4FC Lugano20 September 2026
- L0-1Servette FC13 September 2026
- L1-3away to FC Vaduz5 September 2026
- D0-0away to FC Thun2 September 2026
FC Thun
- L2-4away to FC Zurich10 October 2026
- W2-1away to FC Vaduz20 September 2026
- L2-4Servette FC16 September 2026
- L0-1Grasshoppers12 September 2026
- L2-3away to FC Sion6 September 2026
What these results say
- Lausanne did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Lausanne failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lausanne conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Thun conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Thun failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Thun scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Lausanne | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 6 |
| 9 | FC Thun | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 27 | -10 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Lausanne vs FC Thun
- 2 September 2026FC Thun 0–0 LausanneSuper League
- 12 February 2026FC Thun 5–1 LausanneSuper League
- 30 November 2025Lausanne 2–1 FC ThunSuper League
- 3 August 2025FC Thun 2–1 LausanneSuper League
- 20 March 2025Lausanne 2–2 FC ThunFriendlies Clubs
- 5 January 2025Lausanne 3–0 FC ThunFriendlies Clubs
The two sides
Lausanne carry a model rating of 6.26 against 6.43 for FC Thun. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.33 goals for Lausanne and 1.59 for FC Thun. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lausanne rate 0.42 in attack and 1.46 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Thun rate 0.72 and 1.70.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Thun the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Lausanne against 1.59 for FC Thun. Lausanne's attack/defence rating is 0.42/1.46 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.7 for FC Thun.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Lausanne at home · FC Thun away
League matches only, Super League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
LausanneFC Thun
Lausanne are 12th after 10 Super League matches (between 1st and 12th so far); FC Thun are 9th after 10 (between 1st and 10th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League matches this season: Lausanne 10, FC Thun 10.
Lausanne score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); FC Thun have let in 5 there.
FC Thun score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Lausanne have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Lausanne
- at Grasshoppers7 Nov · Super Leaguewin 30%
- vs FC Vaduz22 Nov · Super Leaguewin 27%
- at Servette FC28 Nov · Super Leaguewin 18%
- vs FC Sion6 Dec · Super Leaguewin 22%
FC Thun
- vs Heart of Midlothian5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 34%
- vs FC Basel 18938 Nov · Super Leaguewin 46%
- at BSC Young Boys21 Nov · Super Leaguewin 18%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.