Rapperswil
vs
Stade Nyonnais
Challenge League prediction
Our model says: Rapperswil 2–0 Stade Nyonnais
The model makes it 60% Rapperswil, 23% draw, 17% Stade Nyonnais — fair odds of 1.67, 4.35 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Rapperswil 2.14, Stade Nyonnais 0.89.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Rapperswil: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Rapperswil are 7th on 10 points from 10 games; Stade Nyonnais are bottom on 5 points from 10 games — Challenge League.
- Rapperswil have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Stade Lausanne-Ouchy.
- Stade Nyonnais have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to FC Aarau.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 31 July 2026, ended Stade Nyonnais 1–2 Rapperswil.
More Challenge League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Rapperswil vs Stade Nyonnais
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rapperswil at 60% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Rapperswil vs Stade Nyonnais
Rapperswil
- L0-3Stade Lausanne-Ouchy9 October 2026
- W3-0away to Neuchatel Xamax FC18 September 2026
- W2-0Yverdon Sport11 September 2026
- L2-3away to FC Aarau4 September 2026
- D1-1SC Kriens1 September 2026
Stade Nyonnais
- W2-1FC Aarau9 October 2026
- L0-5away to FC WIL 190018 September 2026
- L1-3Neuchatel Xamax FC11 September 2026
- L1-4away to Yverdon Sport6 September 2026
- D2-2FC Winterthur1 September 2026
What these results say
- Rapperswil scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Stade Nyonnais conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Stade Nyonnais had three goals or more.
- Stade Nyonnais failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Rapperswil | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 10 |
| 10 | Stade Nyonnais | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 24 | -16 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Rapperswil vs Stade Nyonnais
- 31 July 2026Stade Nyonnais 1–2 RapperswilChallenge League
- 15 May 2026Rapperswil 2–1 Stade NyonnaisChallenge League
- 20 March 2026Stade Nyonnais 2–1 RapperswilChallenge League
- 17 October 2025Rapperswil 1–0 Stade NyonnaisChallenge League
- 1 August 2025Stade Nyonnais 1–0 RapperswilChallenge League
- 19 April 2023Rapperswil 2–4 Stade Nyonnais1. Liga Promotion
The two sides
Rapperswil carry a model rating of 6.05 against 5.76 for Stade Nyonnais. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.14 goals for Rapperswil and 0.89 for Stade Nyonnais. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rapperswil rate 0.49 in attack and 2.45 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Stade Nyonnais rate 0.30 and 2.68.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rapperswil the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Rapperswil against 0.89 for Stade Nyonnais. Rapperswil's attack/defence rating is 0.49/2.45 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.3/2.68 for Stade Nyonnais.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Rapperswil at home · Stade Nyonnais away
League matches only, Challenge League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Challenge League matches this season: Rapperswil 10, Stade Nyonnais 10.
Stade Nyonnais score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Rapperswil have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Rapperswil
- at SC Kriens6 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 22%
- vs FC Aarau20 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 30%
- at FC Winterthur27 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 21%
- vs Neuchatel Xamax FC5 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 44%
Stade Nyonnais
- vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy6 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 17%
- vs FC WIL 190020 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 31%
- at Neuchatel Xamax FC28 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 16%
- vs SC Kriens5 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 23%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.