FC Winterthur
vs
Stade Nyonnais
Challenge League prediction
Our model says: FC Winterthur 2–0 Stade Nyonnais
The model makes it 69% FC Winterthur, 20% draw, 11% Stade Nyonnais — fair odds of 1.45, 5.00 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: FC Winterthur 2.36, Stade Nyonnais 0.68.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: FC Winterthur are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- FC Winterthur are 3rd on 18 points from 10 games; Stade Nyonnais are bottom on 5 points from 10 games — Challenge League.
- FC Winterthur have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Neuchatel Xamax FC.
- Stade Nyonnais have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to FC Aarau.
More Challenge League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Winterthur vs Stade Nyonnais
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Winterthur at 69% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 307 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.2%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Winterthur vs Stade Nyonnais
FC Winterthur
- L0-3away to Neuchatel Xamax FC9 October 2026
- W2-1FC Aarau18 September 2026
- W1-0away to Étoile Carouge11 September 2026
- W4-0Neuchatel Xamax FC4 September 2026
- D2-2away to Stade Nyonnais1 September 2026
Stade Nyonnais
- W2-1FC Aarau9 October 2026
- L0-5away to FC WIL 190018 September 2026
- L1-3Neuchatel Xamax FC11 September 2026
- L1-4away to Yverdon Sport6 September 2026
- D2-2FC Winterthur1 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Winterthur scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Winterthur had three goals or more.
- Stade Nyonnais conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Stade Nyonnais had three goals or more.
- Stade Nyonnais failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | FC Winterthur | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 11 | +8 | 18 |
| 10 | Stade Nyonnais | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 24 | -16 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
FC Winterthur
Chance to finish in the top four · 86% today
From our Challenge League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: FC Winterthur vs Stade Nyonnais
- 1 September 2026Stade Nyonnais 2–2 FC WinterthurChallenge League
The two sides
FC Winterthur carry a model rating of 6.22 against 5.76 for Stade Nyonnais. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.36 goals for FC Winterthur and 0.68 for Stade Nyonnais. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Winterthur rate 0.54 in attack and 1.89 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Stade Nyonnais rate 0.30 and 2.69.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Winterthur a 5.9% chance of the title and Stade Nyonnais 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Winterthur the highest probability at 69%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.36 expected goals for FC Winterthur against 0.68 for Stade Nyonnais. FC Winterthur's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.3/2.69 for Stade Nyonnais.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Winterthur at home · Stade Nyonnais away
League matches only, Challenge League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Challenge League matches this season: FC Winterthur 10, Stade Nyonnais 10.
FC Winterthur score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Stade Nyonnais have let in 8 there.
Stade Nyonnais score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); FC Winterthur have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
FC Winterthur
- at FC WIL 19001 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 40%
- vs Étoile Carouge7 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 56%
- at Yverdon Sport20 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 26%
- vs Rapperswil27 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 56%
- at Stade Lausanne-Ouchy5 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 22%
Stade Nyonnais
- at Rapperswil30 Oct · Challenge Leaguewin 17%
- vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy6 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 16%
- vs FC WIL 190020 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 31%
- at Neuchatel Xamax FC28 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 16%
- vs SC Kriens5 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 23%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.