FC Aarau
vs
Étoile Carouge
Challenge League prediction
Our model says: FC Aarau 1–0 Étoile Carouge
The model makes it 60% FC Aarau, 25% draw, 15% Étoile Carouge — fair odds of 1.67, 4.00 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: FC Aarau 1.85, Étoile Carouge 0.68.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: FC Aarau are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- FC Aarau are 6th on 12 points from 10 games; Étoile Carouge are 9th on 9 points from 10 games — Challenge League.
- FC Aarau are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Stade Nyonnais.
- Étoile Carouge have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Yverdon Sport.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Aarau 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 24 July 2026, ended Étoile Carouge 3–0 FC Aarau.
More Challenge League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Aarau at 60% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge
FC Aarau
- L1-2away to Stade Nyonnais9 October 2026
- L1-2away to FC Winterthur18 September 2026
- D2-2SC Kriens12 September 2026
- W3-2Rapperswil4 September 2026
- D2-2away to FC WIL 190031 August 2026
Étoile Carouge
- L0-2Yverdon Sport9 October 2026
- L1-4away to SC Kriens18 September 2026
- L0-1FC Winterthur11 September 2026
- D1-1FC WIL 19004 September 2026
- L0-3away to Stade Lausanne-Ouchy1 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Aarau scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Aarau conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for FC Aarau had three goals or more.
- Étoile Carouge did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Étoile Carouge conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | FC Aarau | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 12 |
| 9 | Étoile Carouge | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
FC Aarau
Chance to finish in the top four · 36% today
Étoile Carouge
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 76% today
From our Challenge League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge
- 24 July 2026Étoile Carouge 3–0 FC AarauChallenge League
- 7 April 2026FC Aarau 1–3 Étoile CarougeChallenge League
- 6 March 2026Étoile Carouge 0–3 FC AarauChallenge League
- 12 December 2025FC Aarau 2–1 Étoile CarougeChallenge League
- 26 September 2025Étoile Carouge 1–3 FC AarauChallenge League
- 16 May 2025Étoile Carouge 1–3 FC AarauChallenge League
The two sides
FC Aarau carry a model rating of 6.33 against 5.99 for Étoile Carouge. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.85 goals for FC Aarau and 0.68 for Étoile Carouge. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Aarau rate 0.55 in attack and 1.57 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Étoile Carouge rate 0.36 and 2.07.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Aarau a 0.2% chance of the title and Étoile Carouge 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Aarau the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.85 expected goals for FC Aarau against 0.68 for Étoile Carouge. FC Aarau's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.57 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.36/2.07 for Étoile Carouge.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Aarau at home · Étoile Carouge away
League matches only, Challenge League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Challenge League matches this season: FC Aarau 10, Étoile Carouge 10.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
FC Aarau
- at Neuchatel Xamax FC30 Oct · Challenge Leaguewin 42%
- vs FC WIL 19006 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 61%
- at Rapperswil20 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 43%
- at SC Kriens27 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 35%
- vs Yverdon Sport5 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 46%
Étoile Carouge
- vs SC Kriens30 Oct · Challenge Leaguewin 32%
- at FC Winterthur7 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 18%
- at Neuchatel Xamax FC20 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 24%
- vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy27 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 24%
- at FC WIL 19005 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.