Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
vs
Yverdon Sport
Challenge League prediction
Our model says: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1–0 Yverdon Sport
The model makes it 47% Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, 29% draw, 24% Yverdon Sport — fair odds of 2.13, 3.45 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.45, Yverdon Sport 0.90.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are top on 24 points from 10 games; Yverdon Sport are 2nd on 19 points from 10 games — Challenge League.
- Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 3-0 win away to Rapperswil.
- Yverdon Sport have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Étoile Carouge.
- Last 5 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 1 draw; the most recent, 20 September 2026, ended Yverdon Sport 0–0 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy.
More Challenge League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Yverdon Sport
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at 47% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Yverdon Sport
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
- W3-0away to Rapperswil9 October 2026
- D0-0away to Yverdon Sport20 September 2026
- W4-0FC WIL 190011 September 2026
- W2-0away to SC Kriens4 September 2026
- W3-0Étoile Carouge1 September 2026
Yverdon Sport
- W2-0away to Étoile Carouge9 October 2026
- D0-0Stade Lausanne-Ouchy20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Rapperswil11 September 2026
- W4-1Stade Nyonnais6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Neuchatel Xamax FC1 September 2026
What these results say
- Stade Lausanne-Ouchy went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Stade Lausanne-Ouchy kept a clean sheet in every one of these 5 matches.
- Stade Lausanne-Ouchy won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 3 | +17 | 24 |
| 2 | Yverdon Sport | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Yverdon Sport
- 20 September 2026Yverdon Sport 0–0 Stade Lausanne-OuchyChallenge League
- 26 April 2026Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 0–3 Yverdon SportChallenge League
- 8 March 2026Yverdon Sport 0–2 Stade Lausanne-OuchyChallenge League
- 13 December 2025Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 4–0 Yverdon SportChallenge League
- 3 August 2025Yverdon Sport 3–2 Stade Lausanne-OuchyChallenge League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy carry a model rating of 6.38 against 6.27 for Yverdon Sport. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.45 goals for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and 0.90 for Yverdon Sport. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy rate 0.52 in attack and 1.38 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Yverdon Sport rate 0.54 and 1.71.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Stade Lausanne-Ouchy a 80.5% chance of the title and Yverdon Sport 12.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Stade Lausanne-Ouchy the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy against 0.90 for Yverdon Sport. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.71 for Yverdon Sport.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at home · Yverdon Sport away
League matches only, Challenge League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Challenge League matches this season: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 10, Yverdon Sport 10.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Yverdon Sport have let in 0 there.
Yverdon Sport score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
- at Stade Nyonnais6 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 56%
- vs SC Kriens20 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 51%
- at Étoile Carouge27 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 45%
- vs FC Winterthur5 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 50%
Yverdon Sport
- vs Neuchatel Xamax FC8 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 56%
- vs FC Winterthur20 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 47%
- at FC WIL 190028 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 42%
- at FC Aarau5 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 26%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.