Neuchatel Xamax FC
vs
FC Aarau
Challenge League prediction
Our model says: Neuchatel Xamax FC 0–1 FC Aarau
The model makes it 30% Neuchatel Xamax FC, 28% draw, 42% FC Aarau — fair odds of 3.33, 3.57 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Neuchatel Xamax FC 1.20, FC Aarau 1.49.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to FC Aarau: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Neuchatel Xamax FC are 5th on 15 points from 10 games; FC Aarau are 6th on 12 points from 10 games — Challenge League.
- Neuchatel Xamax FC have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to FC Winterthur.
- FC Aarau are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Stade Nyonnais.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Aarau 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 28 August 2026, ended FC Aarau 2–1 Neuchatel Xamax FC.
More Challenge League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Aarau
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Aarau at 42% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Aarau
Neuchatel Xamax FC
- W3-0FC Winterthur9 October 2026
- L0-3Rapperswil18 September 2026
- W3-1away to Stade Nyonnais11 September 2026
- L0-4away to FC Winterthur4 September 2026
- L1-2Yverdon Sport1 September 2026
FC Aarau
- L1-2away to Stade Nyonnais9 October 2026
- L1-2away to FC Winterthur18 September 2026
- D2-2SC Kriens12 September 2026
- W3-2Rapperswil4 September 2026
- D2-2away to FC WIL 190031 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Neuchatel Xamax FC had three goals or more.
- Neuchatel Xamax FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Aarau scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Aarau conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for FC Aarau had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 15 |
| 6 | FC Aarau | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Neuchatel Xamax FC vs FC Aarau
- 28 August 2026FC Aarau 2–1 Neuchatel Xamax FCChallenge League
- 1 May 2026Neuchatel Xamax FC 1–3 FC AarauChallenge League
- 21 March 2026FC Aarau 1–0 Neuchatel Xamax FCChallenge League
- 28 November 2025Neuchatel Xamax FC 1–2 FC AarauChallenge League
- 9 August 2025FC Aarau 2–0 Neuchatel Xamax FCChallenge League
- 11 April 2025Neuchatel Xamax FC 1–1 FC AarauChallenge League
The two sides
Neuchatel Xamax FC carry a model rating of 6.07 against 6.33 for FC Aarau. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.20 goals for Neuchatel Xamax FC and 1.49 for FC Aarau. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Neuchatel Xamax FC rate 0.47 in attack and 2.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Aarau rate 0.55 and 1.57.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Neuchatel Xamax FC, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Neuchatel Xamax FC a 0.3% chance of the title and FC Aarau 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Aarau the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Neuchatel Xamax FC against 1.49 for FC Aarau. Neuchatel Xamax FC's attack/defence rating is 0.47/2.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.57 for FC Aarau.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Neuchatel Xamax FC at home · FC Aarau away
League matches only, Challenge League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Challenge League matches this season: Neuchatel Xamax FC 10, FC Aarau 10.
Neuchatel Xamax FC score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); FC Aarau have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Neuchatel Xamax FC
- at Yverdon Sport8 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 20%
- vs Étoile Carouge20 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 48%
- vs Stade Nyonnais28 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 61%
- at Rapperswil5 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 30%
FC Aarau
- vs FC WIL 19006 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 61%
- at Rapperswil20 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 43%
- at SC Kriens27 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 35%
- vs Yverdon Sport5 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 46%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.