FC WIL 1900
vs
Rapperswil
Challenge League prediction
Our model says: FC WIL 1900 2–1 Rapperswil
The model makes it 43% FC WIL 1900, 26% draw, 31% Rapperswil — fair odds of 2.33, 3.85 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FC WIL 1900 1.75, Rapperswil 1.39.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- FC WIL 1900 are 8th on 10 points from 10 games; Rapperswil are 7th on 10 points from 10 games — Challenge League.
- FC WIL 1900 have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to SC Kriens.
- Rapperswil have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Stade Lausanne-Ouchy.
- Last 6 meetings: Rapperswil 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 24 July 2026, ended Rapperswil 4–5 FC WIL 1900.
More Challenge League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC WIL 1900 vs Rapperswil
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC WIL 1900 at 43% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC WIL 1900 vs Rapperswil
FC WIL 1900
- D1-1away to SC Kriens9 October 2026
- W5-0Stade Nyonnais18 September 2026
- L0-4away to Stade Lausanne-Ouchy11 September 2026
- D1-1away to Étoile Carouge4 September 2026
- D2-2FC Aarau31 August 2026
Rapperswil
- L0-3Stade Lausanne-Ouchy9 October 2026
- W3-0away to Neuchatel Xamax FC18 September 2026
- W2-0Yverdon Sport11 September 2026
- L2-3away to FC Aarau4 September 2026
- D1-1SC Kriens1 September 2026
What these results say
- FC WIL 1900 failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC WIL 1900 scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC WIL 1900 conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rapperswil scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | FC WIL 1900 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 22 | -6 | 10 |
| 7 | Rapperswil | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
FC WIL 1900
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 55% today
Rapperswil
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 49% today
From our Challenge League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: FC WIL 1900 vs Rapperswil
- 24 July 2026Rapperswil 4–5 FC WIL 1900Challenge League
- 11 April 2026Rapperswil 2–0 FC WIL 1900Challenge League
- 13 February 2026FC WIL 1900 0–2 RapperswilChallenge League
- 7 November 2025Rapperswil 1–2 FC WIL 1900Challenge League
- 26 August 2025FC WIL 1900 1–3 RapperswilChallenge League
- 14 July 2023FC WIL 1900 0–0 RapperswilFriendlies Clubs
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC WIL 1900 carry a model rating of 6.01 against 6.05 for Rapperswil. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.75 goals for FC WIL 1900 and 1.39 for Rapperswil. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC WIL 1900 rate 0.44 in attack and 2.36 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rapperswil rate 0.49 and 2.45.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Rapperswil, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC WIL 1900 the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for FC WIL 1900 against 1.39 for Rapperswil. FC WIL 1900's attack/defence rating is 0.44/2.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/2.45 for Rapperswil.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC WIL 1900 at home · Rapperswil away
League matches only, Challenge League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Challenge League matches this season: FC WIL 1900 10, Rapperswil 10.
FC WIL 1900 score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Rapperswil have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
FC WIL 1900
- vs FC Winterthur1 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 33%
- at FC Aarau6 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 16%
- at Stade Nyonnais20 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 41%
- vs Yverdon Sport28 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 30%
- vs Étoile Carouge5 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 45%
Rapperswil
- vs Stade Nyonnais30 Oct · Challenge Leaguewin 60%
- at SC Kriens6 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 22%
- vs FC Aarau20 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 30%
- at FC Winterthur27 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 21%
- vs Neuchatel Xamax FC5 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.