Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
vs
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Challenge League prediction
Our model says: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1–0 Neuchatel Xamax FC
The model makes it 59% Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, 24% draw, 17% Neuchatel Xamax FC — fair odds of 1.69, 4.17 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.91, Neuchatel Xamax FC 0.78.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are top on 24 points from 10 games; Neuchatel Xamax FC are 5th on 15 points from 10 games — Challenge League.
- Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 3-0 win away to Rapperswil.
- Neuchatel Xamax FC have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to FC Winterthur.
- Last 6 meetings: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 21 August 2026, ended Neuchatel Xamax FC 1–2 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy.
More Challenge League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Neuchatel Xamax FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at 59% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Neuchatel Xamax FC
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
- W3-0away to Rapperswil9 October 2026
- D0-0away to Yverdon Sport20 September 2026
- W4-0FC WIL 190011 September 2026
- W2-0away to SC Kriens4 September 2026
- W3-0Étoile Carouge1 September 2026
Neuchatel Xamax FC
- W3-0FC Winterthur9 October 2026
- L0-3Rapperswil18 September 2026
- W3-1away to Stade Nyonnais11 September 2026
- L0-4away to FC Winterthur4 September 2026
- L1-2Yverdon Sport1 September 2026
What these results say
- Stade Lausanne-Ouchy went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Stade Lausanne-Ouchy kept a clean sheet in every one of these 5 matches.
- Stade Lausanne-Ouchy won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Neuchatel Xamax FC had three goals or more.
- Neuchatel Xamax FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 3 | +17 | 24 |
| 5 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Chance to win the league · 81% today
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Chance to finish in the top four · 30% today
From our Challenge League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Neuchatel Xamax FC
- 21 August 2026Neuchatel Xamax FC 1–2 Stade Lausanne-OuchyChallenge League
- 15 May 2026Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2–1 Neuchatel Xamax FCChallenge League
- 8 February 2026Neuchatel Xamax FC 3–0 Stade Lausanne-OuchyChallenge League
- 10 December 2025Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3–0 Neuchatel Xamax FCChallenge League
- 3 October 2025Neuchatel Xamax FC 0–2 Stade Lausanne-OuchyChallenge League
- 18 April 2025Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 0–0 Neuchatel Xamax FCChallenge League
The two sides
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy carry a model rating of 6.38 against 6.07 for Neuchatel Xamax FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.91 goals for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and 0.78 for Neuchatel Xamax FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy rate 0.52 in attack and 1.37 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Neuchatel Xamax FC rate 0.47 and 2.26.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Stade Lausanne-Ouchy a 81% chance of the title and Neuchatel Xamax FC 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Stade Lausanne-Ouchy the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy against 0.78 for Neuchatel Xamax FC. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/2.26 for Neuchatel Xamax FC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at home · Neuchatel Xamax FC away
League matches only, Challenge League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Challenge League matches this season: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 10, Neuchatel Xamax FC 10.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Neuchatel Xamax FC have let in 5 there.
Neuchatel Xamax FC score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
- vs Yverdon Sport30 Oct · Challenge Leaguewin 47%
- at Stade Nyonnais6 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 57%
- vs SC Kriens20 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 51%
- at Étoile Carouge27 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 45%
- vs FC Winterthur5 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 50%
Neuchatel Xamax FC
- vs FC Aarau30 Oct · Challenge Leaguewin 30%
- at Yverdon Sport8 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 20%
- vs Étoile Carouge20 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 48%
- vs Stade Nyonnais28 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 61%
- at Rapperswil5 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 30%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.