Regular Season - 16 · 20 November 2026, 19:00 UTC

FC Volendam vs Jong Ajax Eerste Divisie prediction

Kras Stadion, Volendam

Our model says: FC Volendam 2–1 Jong Ajax

The model makes it 58% FC Volendam, 22% draw, 20% Jong Ajax — fair odds of 1.72, 4.55 and 5.00.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).

Expected goals: FC Volendam 2.40, Jong Ajax 1.22.

Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

Edge to FC Volendam: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. FC Volendam's rating is built from 16 Eerste Divisie matches and Jong Ajax's from 52, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • FC Volendam are 7th on 22 points from 14 games; Jong Ajax are 14th on 16 points from 14 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
  • FC Volendam have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win away to Helmond Sport.
  • Jong Ajax are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 3-0 win away to FC Eindhoven.
  • Last 6 meetings: FC Volendam 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 31 March 2025, ended Jong Ajax 0–2 FC Volendam.

More Eerste Divisie predictions

All Eerste Divisie predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: FC Volendam vs Jong Ajax

64%
Both teams to score
70%
Over 2.5 goals
30%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

FC Volendam win Draw Jong Ajax win
  1. 2–19%
  2. 1–18%
  3. 2–08%
  4. 3–18%
  5. 3–06%
  6. 1–06%
  7. 2–26%

Scores read FC Volendam first; the other scorelines share the remaining 50%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

FC Volendam at 58%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into FC Volendam vs Jong Ajax

FC Volendam

Eerste Divisie

  • W3-2away to Helmond Sport6 November 2026
  • L1-2De Graafschap30 October 2026
  • W6-2Jong Utrecht23 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Waalwijk18 October 2026
  • W2-0Vitesse9 October 2026

Jong Ajax

Eerste Divisie

  • W3-0away to FC Eindhoven6 November 2026
  • D1-1Vitesse2 November 2026
  • D3-3away to FC OSS23 October 2026
  • W2-1De Graafschap19 October 2026
  • L0-3VVV Venlo9 October 2026

What these results say

  • FC Volendam scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • FC Volendam conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for FC Volendam.
  • Jong Ajax scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Jong Ajax conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Jong Ajax had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7FC Volendam147163324+922
14Jong Ajax144462230-816

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

FC Volendam

Chance to finish in the top eight · 75% today

Win 78%
Draw 72%
Defeat 66%

Jong Ajax

Chance to finish in the top eight · 11% today

Win 17%
Draw 13%
Defeat 9%

From our Eerste Divisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: FC Volendam vs Jong Ajax

  • 31 March 2025Jong Ajax 0–2 FC VolendamEerste Divisie
  • 25 November 2024FC Volendam 3–0 Jong AjaxEerste Divisie
  • 2 August 2024Jong Ajax 3–1 FC VolendamFriendlies Clubs
  • 16 April 2022FC Volendam 3–1 Jong AjaxEerste Divisie
  • 19 November 2021Jong Ajax 4–4 FC VolendamEerste Divisie
  • 31 July 2021FC Volendam 4–2 Jong AjaxFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: FC Volendam and Jong Ajax

FC Volendam

GoalsAssists

  • H. Veerman142
  • R. Niemeijer52

Jong Ajax

GoalsAssists

  • E. Ünüvar80
  • D. Pugno62

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Volendam a 0.5% chance of the title and Jong Ajax 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

FC Volendam Jong Ajax
0.74 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.57
1.77 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.99
2.40 Model expected goals (this match) 1.22

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives FC Volendam the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.40 expected goals for FC Volendam against 1.22 for Jong Ajax. FC Volendam's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.99 for Jong Ajax.

FC Volendam carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.23 for Jong Ajax.

How the model reaches 58% for FC Volendam to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FC Volendam to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 3 points, FC Volendam's ratings add 6 points and Jong Ajax's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 58%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level47%+3
  4. FC Volendam's ratings53%+6
  5. Jong Ajax's ratings58%+5

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

FC VolendamJong Ajax
14Matches14
7W 1D 6LRecord4W 4D 6L
33 2.4 per gameGoals scored22 1.6 per game
24 1.7 per gameGoals conceded30 2.1 per game
3 of 14Clean sheets3 of 14
2 of 14Failed to score3 of 14
1 of 2Penalties scored1 of 1
22 1.6 per gameYellow cards34 2.4 per game
0Red cards3
4-2-3-1 8×Usual shape4-3-3 8×

FC Volendam at home · Jong Ajax away

7Played7
6W 0D 1LRecord2W 2D 3L
23–7Goals for – against12–15
3 of 7Clean sheets2 of 7

League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Eerste Divisie matches this season: FC Volendam 14, Jong Ajax 14.

FC Volendam scored 616677
Jong Ajax conceded 524575
Jong Ajax scored 733234
FC Volendam conceded 062556

Jong Ajax score most often in the 0–15 minute window (7 goals); FC Volendam have let in 0 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

FC Volendam

  • vs FC Eindhoven29 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 61%
  • at NAC Breda6 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 30%
  • at Heracles11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 15%
  • vs Emmen18 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 57%

Jong Ajax

  • vs Jong AZ23 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 44%
  • vs Heracles27 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 20%
  • at Den Bosch4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 25%
  • vs MVV11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 51%
  • at Waalwijk18 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 22%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.