Regular Season - 16 · 20 November 2026, 19:00 UTC

Jong Utrecht vs Emmen Eerste Divisie prediction

Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Utrecht

Our model says: Jong Utrecht 2–1 Emmen

The model makes it 43% Jong Utrecht, 26% draw, 31% Emmen — fair odds of 2.33, 3.85 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Jong Utrecht 1.76, Emmen 1.40.

Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Jong Utrecht's rating is built from 52 Eerste Divisie matches and Emmen's from 52, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Jong Utrecht are 19th on 11 points from 14 games; Emmen are 6th on 25 points from 14 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
  • Jong Utrecht have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Den Bosch.
  • Emmen have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to MVV.
  • Last 6 meetings: Emmen 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 2 March 2026, ended Emmen 1–0 Jong Utrecht.

More Eerste Divisie predictions

All Eerste Divisie predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Jong Utrecht vs Emmen

63%
Both teams to score
61%
Over 2.5 goals
39%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Jong Utrecht win Draw Emmen win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 2–19%
  3. 1–27%
  4. 1–07%
  5. 2–07%
  6. 2–26%
  7. 0–15%

Scores read Jong Utrecht first; the other scorelines share the remaining 48%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Jong Utrecht at 43%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Jong Utrecht vs Emmen

Jong Utrecht

Eerste Divisie

  • D1-1away to Den Bosch7 November 2026
  • W3-2Dordrecht2 November 2026
  • L2-6away to FC Volendam23 October 2026
  • L1-2Roda19 October 2026
  • L1-2away to De Graafschap9 October 2026

Emmen

Eerste Divisie

  • L0-2MVV8 November 2026
  • L0-5Den Bosch1 November 2026
  • W2-0away to Vitesse23 October 2026
  • W2-1Almere City FC17 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Dordrecht9 October 2026

What these results say

  • Jong Utrecht scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Jong Utrecht conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Jong Utrecht.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
19Jong Utrecht143292334-1111
6Emmen148152626025

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Jong Utrecht

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 45% today

Win 38%
Draw 48%
Defeat 51%

Emmen

Chance to finish in the top eight · 48% today

Win 55%
Draw 47%
Defeat 41%

From our Eerste Divisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Jong Utrecht vs Emmen

  • 2 March 2026Emmen 1–0 Jong UtrechtEerste Divisie
  • 7 November 2025Jong Utrecht 1–2 EmmenEerste Divisie
  • 14 March 2025Emmen 2–0 Jong UtrechtEerste Divisie
  • 30 August 2024Jong Utrecht 1–2 EmmenEerste Divisie
  • 15 March 2024Jong Utrecht 2–3 EmmenEerste Divisie
  • 18 September 2023Emmen 2–0 Jong UtrechtEerste Divisie

Leading scorers: Jong Utrecht and Emmen

Jong Utrecht

GoalsAssists

  • E. C. Owen60

Emmen

GoalsAssists

  • J. Cooper93
  • F. Quispel72

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Emmen (6th, with Jong Utrecht 19th), while our numbers lean to Jong Utrecht. Jong Utrecht rate 0.56 in attack and 2.07 in defence, Emmen 0.56 and 1.93 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Jong Utrecht a 0% chance of the title and Emmen 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Jong Utrecht v Emmen has moved

First published on 6 Nov at 42% / 25% / 33% (home / draw / away). After 3 updates it reads 43% / 26% / 31%: the biggest move is Emmen's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Jong Utrecht win43%▲ +1
  2. Draw26%▲ +1
  3. Emmen win31%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Jong Utrecht Emmen
0.56 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.56
2.07 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.93
1.76 Model expected goals (this match) 1.40

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Jong Utrecht the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Jong Utrecht against 1.40 for Emmen. Jong Utrecht's attack/defence rating is 0.56/2.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.93 for Emmen.

Jong Utrecht carry a model rating of 6.2 against 6.23 for Emmen. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 43% for Jong Utrecht to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Jong Utrecht to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Jong Utrecht's ratings take away 1 point and Emmen's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 43%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level46%+2
  4. Jong Utrecht's ratings45%−1
  5. Emmen's ratings43%−2

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Jong UtrechtEmmen
14Matches14
3W 2D 9LRecord8W 1D 5L
23 1.6 per gameGoals scored26 1.9 per game
34 2.4 per gameGoals conceded26 1.9 per game
1 of 14Clean sheets4 of 14
1 of 14Failed to score3 of 14
–Penalties scored3 of 3
17 1.2 per gameYellow cards30 2.1 per game
2Red cards2
4-2-3-1 5×Usual shape4-2-3-1 9×

Jong Utrecht at home · Emmen away

7Played6
2W 1D 4LRecord3W 1D 2L
13–17Goals for – against13–12
1 of 7Clean sheets2 of 6

League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Jong Utrecht 14, Emmen 14.

Jong Utrecht scored 554432
Emmen conceded 452265
Emmen scored 235574
Jong Utrecht conceded 548745

Emmen score most often in the 61–75 minute window (7 goals); Jong Utrecht have let in 4 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Jong Utrecht

  • at Jong PSV U2123 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 27%
  • vs Almere City FC27 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 29%
  • at Helmond Sport4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 30%
  • vs Waalwijk11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 35%
  • at VVV Venlo19 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 19%

Emmen

  • vs Helmond Sport28 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 48%
  • at Heracles4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 10%
  • vs Jong PSV U2111 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 43%
  • at FC Volendam18 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 21%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.