Regular Season - 16 · 20 November 2026, 19:00 UTC

De Graafschap vs MVV Eerste Divisie prediction

De Vijverberg, Doetinchem

Our model says: De Graafschap 1–0 MVV

The model makes it 52% De Graafschap, 26% draw, 22% MVV — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: De Graafschap 1.76, MVV 0.95.

Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

Edge to De Graafschap: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. De Graafschap's rating is built from 53 Eerste Divisie matches and MVV's from 52, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • De Graafschap are 15th on 15 points from 13 games; MVV are 8th on 20 points from 14 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
  • De Graafschap have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to FC Volendam.
  • MVV have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Emmen.
  • Last 6 meetings: De Graafschap 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 27 February 2026, ended MVV 3–3 De Graafschap.

More Eerste Divisie predictions

All Eerste Divisie predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: De Graafschap vs MVV

51%
Both teams to score
51%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

De Graafschap win Draw MVV win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 1–011%
  3. 2–010%
  4. 2–110%
  5. 0–07%
  6. 3–06%
  7. 0–16%

Scores read De Graafschap first; the other scorelines share the remaining 38%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

De Graafschap at 52%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into De Graafschap vs MVV

De Graafschap

Eerste Divisie

  • W2-1away to FC Volendam30 October 2026
  • D1-1Waalwijk23 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Jong Ajax19 October 2026
  • W2-1Jong Utrecht9 October 2026
  • D2-2away to FC Eindhoven3 October 2026

MVV

Eerste Divisie

  • W2-0away to Emmen8 November 2026
  • L1-2VVV Venlo31 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Den Bosch23 October 2026
  • L1-5Heracles18 October 2026
  • L0-1away to NAC Breda9 October 2026

What these results say

  • De Graafschap scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • De Graafschap conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for De Graafschap.
  • MVV failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • MVV scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • MVV conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15De Graafschap134361727-1015
8MVV146261929-1020

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

De Graafschap

Chance to finish in the top eight · 20% today

Win 23%
Draw 15%
Defeat 14%

MVV

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 17% today

Win 11%
Draw 16%
Defeat 19%

From our Eerste Divisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: De Graafschap vs MVV

  • 27 February 2026MVV 3–3 De GraafschapEerste Divisie
  • 22 August 2025De Graafschap 0–1 MVVEerste Divisie
  • 22 March 2025De Graafschap 0–0 MVVEerste Divisie
  • 8 November 2024MVV 0–0 De GraafschapEerste Divisie
  • 26 April 2024De Graafschap 3–0 MVVEerste Divisie
  • 24 September 2023MVV 1–2 De GraafschapEerste Divisie

Leading scorers: De Graafschap and MVV

De Graafschap

GoalsAssists

  • J. Kania50

MVV

GoalsAssists

  • O. Dumont51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour MVV (8th, with De Graafschap 15th), while our numbers lean to De Graafschap. De Graafschap rate 0.55 in attack and 1.76 in defence, MVV 0.45 and 1.97 (lower is better in defence), so De Graafschap have been the better side at both ends on recent expected goals, which the 5-point gap in the table does not yet show.

How the call on De Graafschap v MVV has moved

First published on 6 Nov at 54% / 26% / 20% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 52% / 26% / 22%: the biggest move is De Graafschap's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. De Graafschap win52%▼ −2
  2. Draw26%=
  3. MVV win22%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

De Graafschap MVV
0.55 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.45
1.76 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.97
1.76 Model expected goals (this match) 0.95

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives De Graafschap the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.76 expected goals for De Graafschap against 0.95 for MVV. De Graafschap's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/1.97 for MVV.

De Graafschap carry a model rating of 6.27 against 6.11 for MVV.

How the model reaches 52% for De Graafschap to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for De Graafschap to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, De Graafschap's ratings add 5 points and MVV's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 52%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level43%−1
  4. De Graafschap's ratings48%+5
  5. MVV's ratings52%+4

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

De GraafschapMVV
13Matches14
4W 3D 6LRecord6W 2D 6L
17 1.3 per gameGoals scored19 1.4 per game
27 2.1 per gameGoals conceded29 2.1 per game
1 of 13Clean sheets3 of 14
1 of 13Failed to score2 of 14
–Penalties scored2 of 2
25 1.9 per gameYellow cards15 1.1 per game
1Red cards0
4-2-3-1 4×Usual shape4-2-3-1 9×

De Graafschap at home · MVV away

6Played7
2W 1D 3LRecord3W 1D 3L
8–13Goals for – against11–16
1 of 6Clean sheets1 of 7

League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Eerste Divisie matches this season: De Graafschap 13, MVV 14.

De Graafschap scored 224333
MVV conceded 415756

De Graafschap score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); MVV have let in 5 there.

MVV scored 413426
De Graafschap conceded 454247

MVV score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); De Graafschap have let in 7 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

De Graafschap

  • at Roda29 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 26%
  • at Jong PSV U217 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 30%
  • vs Dordrecht11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 53%

MVV

  • vs Jong PSV U2127 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 36%
  • vs Dordrecht4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 44%
  • at Jong Ajax11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 23%
  • vs FC OSS18 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 35%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.