Regular Season - 15 · 23 November 2026, 19:00 UTC

Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ Eerste Divisie prediction

Sportcomplex De Toekomst, Ouder-Amstel

Our model says: Jong Ajax 2–1 Jong AZ

The model makes it 44% Jong Ajax, 24% draw, 32% Jong AZ — fair odds of 2.27, 4.17 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Jong Ajax 2.00, Jong AZ 1.65.

Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Jong Ajax's rating is built from 52 Eerste Divisie matches and Jong AZ's from 52, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Jong Ajax are 14th on 16 points from 14 games; Jong AZ are 12th on 17 points from 14 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
  • Jong Ajax are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 3-0 win away to FC Eindhoven.
  • Jong AZ have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Almere City FC.
  • Last 6 meetings: Jong AZ 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 17 July 2026, ended Jong AZ 3–0 Jong Ajax.

More Eerste Divisie predictions

All Eerste Divisie predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ

70%
Both teams to score
71%
Over 2.5 goals
29%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Jong Ajax win Draw Jong AZ win
  1. 1–19%
  2. 2–19%
  3. 2–27%
  4. 1–27%
  5. 3–16%
  6. 2–05%
  7. 1–05%

Scores read Jong Ajax first; the other scorelines share the remaining 52%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Jong Ajax at 44%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ

Jong Ajax

Eerste Divisie

  • W3-0away to FC Eindhoven6 November 2026
  • D1-1Vitesse2 November 2026
  • D3-3away to FC OSS23 October 2026
  • W2-1De Graafschap19 October 2026
  • L0-3VVV Venlo9 October 2026

Jong AZ

Eerste Divisie

  • L1-3Almere City FC6 November 2026
  • L1-2away to Roda30 October 2026
  • W5-4Helmond Sport23 October 2026
  • D4-4away to VVV Venlo16 October 2026
  • L0-1Den Bosch9 October 2026

What these results say

  • Jong Ajax scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Jong Ajax conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Jong Ajax had three goals or more.
  • Jong AZ conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Jong AZ failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Jong AZ scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Jong Ajax144462230-816
12Jong AZ145273331+217

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Jong Ajax

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 18% today

Win 14%
Draw 19%
Defeat 23%

Jong AZ

Chance to finish in the top eight · 21% today

Win 27%
Draw 20%
Defeat 16%

From our Eerste Divisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ

  • 17 July 2026Jong AZ 3–0 Jong AjaxFriendlies Clubs
  • 12 January 2026Jong AZ 1–2 Jong AjaxEerste Divisie
  • 18 August 2025Jong Ajax 4–1 Jong AZEerste Divisie
  • 13 January 2025Jong AZ 2–1 Jong AjaxEerste Divisie
  • 17 September 2024Jong Ajax 1–2 Jong AZEerste Divisie
  • 10 May 2024Jong Ajax 1–4 Jong AZEerste Divisie

Leading scorers: Jong Ajax and Jong AZ

Jong Ajax

GoalsAssists

  • E. Ünüvar80
  • D. Pugno62

Jong AZ

No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 33 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Jong AZ (12th, with Jong Ajax 14th), while our numbers lean to Jong Ajax. Jong Ajax rate 0.57 in attack and 1.99 in defence, Jong AZ 0.69 and 2.16 (lower is better in defence), so Jong Ajax have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 1-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Jong Ajax Jong AZ
0.57 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.69
1.99 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 2.16
2.00 Model expected goals (this match) 1.65

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Jong Ajax the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Jong Ajax against 1.65 for Jong AZ. Jong Ajax's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/2.16 for Jong AZ.

Jong Ajax carry a model rating of 6.23 against 6.3 for Jong AZ. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 44% for Jong Ajax to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Jong Ajax to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 3 points, Jong Ajax's ratings take away 2 points and Jong AZ's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 44%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level47%+3
  4. Jong Ajax's ratings45%−2
  5. Jong AZ's ratings44%−1

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Jong AjaxJong AZ
14Matches14
4W 4D 6LRecord5W 2D 7L
22 1.6 per gameGoals scored33 2.4 per game
30 2.1 per gameGoals conceded31 2.2 per game
3 of 14Clean sheets0 of 14
3 of 14Failed to score2 of 14
1 of 1Penalties scored2 of 2
34 2.4 per gameYellow cards17 1.2 per game
3Red cards1
4-3-3 8×Usual shape4-2-3-1 8×

Jong Ajax at home · Jong AZ away

7Played7
2W 2D 3LRecord2W 2D 3L
10–15Goals for – against20–18
1 of 7Clean sheets0 of 7

League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Jong Ajax 14, Jong AZ 14.

Jong Ajax scored 733234
Jong AZ conceded 229575

Jong Ajax score most often in the 0–15 minute window (7 goals); Jong AZ have let in 2 there.

Jong AZ scored 382468
Jong Ajax conceded 524575

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Jong Ajax

  • vs Heracles27 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 20%
  • at Den Bosch4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 25%
  • vs MVV11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 51%
  • at Waalwijk18 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 22%

Jong AZ

  • vs FC OSS27 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 47%
  • at Waalwijk4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 25%
  • vs NAC Breda11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 39%
  • at Helmond Sport18 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 34%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.