Regular Season - 16 · 20 November 2026, 19:00 UTC

Heracles vs Jong PSV U21 Eerste Divisie prediction

Asito Stadium, Almelo

Our model says: Heracles 2–0 Jong PSV U21

The model makes it 71% Heracles, 18% draw, 11% Jong PSV U21 — fair odds of 1.41, 5.56 and 9.09.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).

Expected goals: Heracles 2.55, Jong PSV U21 0.72.

Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

One-sided: Heracles are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 10 November 2026. Heracles's rating is built from 14 Eerste Divisie matches and Jong PSV U21's from 52, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Heracles are top on 35 points from 14 games; Jong PSV U21 are 13th on 17 points from 14 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
  • Heracles are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 5-1 win at home to Roda.
  • Jong PSV U21 have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to VVV Venlo.
  • Last 2 meetings: Heracles 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 28 April 2023, ended Heracles 3–0 Jong PSV U21.

More Eerste Divisie predictions

All Eerste Divisie predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Heracles vs Jong PSV U21

48%
Both teams to score
63%
Over 2.5 goals
37%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Heracles win Draw Jong PSV U21 win
  1. 2–012%
  2. 3–011%
  3. 1–09%
  4. 2–19%
  5. 3–18%
  6. 1–17%
  7. 4–07%

Scores read Heracles first; the other scorelines share the remaining 37%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Heracles at 71%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Heracles vs Jong PSV U21

Heracles

Eerste Divisie

  • W5-1Roda6 November 2026
  • W2-0FC OSS2 November 2026
  • D1-1away to NAC Breda23 October 2026
  • W5-1away to MVV18 October 2026
  • W3-0Waalwijk9 October 2026

Jong PSV U21

Eerste Divisie

  • D1-1away to VVV Venlo6 November 2026
  • L0-2NAC Breda2 November 2026
  • W2-1away to FC Eindhoven23 October 2026
  • L0-1Dordrecht19 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Roda9 October 2026

What these results say

  • Heracles went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Heracles scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Heracles won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Jong PSV U21 conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Jong PSV U21 failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Jong PSV U21 had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Heracles1411214415+2935
13Jong PSV U21144551822-417

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Heracles

Chance to finish top of the Eerste Divisie: Regular season · 90% today

Win 91%
Draw 87%
Defeat 85%

Jong PSV U21

Chance to finish in the top eight · 15% today

Win 21%
Draw 17%
Defeat 14%

From our Eerste Divisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Heracles vs Jong PSV U21

  • 28 April 2023Heracles 3–0 Jong PSV U21Eerste Divisie
  • 22 August 2022Jong PSV U21 0–3 HeraclesEerste Divisie

Leading scorers: Heracles and Jong PSV U21

Heracles

GoalsAssists

  • J. N'djoli142
  • T. van Gilst112

Jong PSV U21

No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Heracles a 89.7% chance of the title and Jong PSV U21 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Heracles v Jong PSV U21 has moved

First published on 6 Nov at 69% / 20% / 11% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 71% / 18% / 11%: the biggest move is Heracles's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Heracles win71%▲ +2
  2. Draw18%▼ −2
  3. Jong PSV U21 win11%=

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Heracles Jong PSV U21
0.95 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.48
1.24 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.65
2.55 Model expected goals (this match) 0.72

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Heracles the highest probability at 71%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.55 expected goals for Heracles against 0.72 for Jong PSV U21. Heracles's attack/defence rating is 0.95/1.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.65 for Jong PSV U21.

Heracles carry a model rating of 6.72 against 6.24 for Jong PSV U21.

How the model reaches 71% for Heracles to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Heracles to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Heracles's ratings add 15 points and Jong PSV U21's ratings add 12 points, which lands on the published 71%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Heracles's ratings59%+15
  4. Jong PSV U21's ratings71%+12

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

HeraclesJong PSV U21
14Matches14
11W 2D 1LRecord4W 5D 5L
44 3.1 per gameGoals scored18 1.3 per game
15 1.1 per gameGoals conceded22 1.6 per game
4 of 14Clean sheets1 of 14
1 of 14Failed to score2 of 14
6 of 6Penalties scored2 of 3
20 1.4 per gameYellow cards14 1.0 per game
1Red cards1
4-2-3-1 12×Usual shape4-2-3-1 12×

Heracles at home · Jong PSV U21 away

7Played7
7W 0D 0LRecord1W 3D 3L
23–5Goals for – against9–14
4 of 7Clean sheets0 of 7

League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Heracles 14, Jong PSV U21 14.

Heracles scored 72116104
Jong PSV U21 conceded 522256

Heracles score most often in the 31–45 minute window (11 goals); Jong PSV U21 have let in 2 there.

Jong PSV U21 scored 234414
Heracles conceded 413316

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Heracles

  • at Jong Ajax27 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 58%
  • vs Emmen4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 74%
  • vs FC Volendam11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 66%
  • at De Graafschap18 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 54%

Jong PSV U21

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.