Regular Season - 16 · 20 November 2026, 19:00 UTC

Almere City FC vs NAC Breda Eerste Divisie prediction

Yanmar Stadion, Almere

Our model says: Almere City FC 1–0 NAC Breda

The model makes it 49% Almere City FC, 27% draw, 24% NAC Breda — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Almere City FC 1.67, NAC Breda 1.00.

Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Almere City FC's rating is built from 58 Eerste Divisie matches and NAC Breda's from 14, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Almere City FC are 3rd on 28 points from 14 games; NAC Breda are 4th on 25 points from 14 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
  • Almere City FC have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Jong AZ.
  • NAC Breda are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to Dordrecht.
  • Last 6 meetings: NAC Breda 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 14 March 2025, ended Almere City FC 1–1 NAC Breda.

More Eerste Divisie predictions

All Eerste Divisie predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Almere City FC vs NAC Breda

52%
Both teams to score
50%
Over 2.5 goals
50%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Almere City FC win Draw NAC Breda win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 1–011%
  3. 2–010%
  4. 2–110%
  5. 0–08%
  6. 0–16%
  7. 1–26%

Scores read Almere City FC first; the other scorelines share the remaining 38%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Almere City FC at 49%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Almere City FC vs NAC Breda

Almere City FC

Eerste Divisie

  • W3-1away to Jong AZ6 November 2026
  • W2-1away to Waalwijk30 October 2026
  • L2-3Roda23 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Emmen17 October 2026
  • W3-0FC Eindhoven9 October 2026

NAC Breda

Eerste Divisie

  • D0-0away to Dordrecht6 November 2026
  • W2-0away to Jong PSV U212 November 2026
  • D1-1Heracles23 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Helmond Sport16 October 2026
  • W1-0MVV9 October 2026

What these results say

  • Almere City FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Almere City FC had three goals or more.
  • Almere City FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • NAC Breda went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for NAC Breda had two goals or fewer.
  • NAC Breda scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Almere City FC149143014+1628
4NAC Breda147432520+525

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Almere City FC

Chance to finish top of the Eerste Divisie: Regular season · 5% today

Win 7%
Draw 3%
Defeat 4%

NAC Breda

Chance to finish in the top eight · 80% today

Win 86%
Draw 81%
Defeat 77%

From our Eerste Divisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Almere City FC vs NAC Breda

  • 14 March 2025Almere City FC 1–1 NAC BredaEredivisie
  • 30 November 2024NAC Breda 1–0 Almere City FCEredivisie
  • 7 May 2023Almere City FC 0–2 NAC BredaEerste Divisie
  • 16 December 2022NAC Breda 0–1 Almere City FCEerste Divisie
  • 16 April 2022Almere City FC 1–2 NAC BredaEerste Divisie
  • 10 December 2021NAC Breda 1–1 Almere City FCEerste Divisie

Leading scorers: Almere City FC and NAC Breda

Almere City FC

GoalsAssists

  • F. Druijf93

NAC Breda

GoalsAssists

  • C. Brym90

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Almere City FC a 5.3% chance of the title and NAC Breda 0.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Almere City FC NAC Breda
0.7 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.59
1.4 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.47
1.67 Model expected goals (this match) 1.00

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Almere City FC the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Almere City FC against 1.00 for NAC Breda. Almere City FC's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.4 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.47 for NAC Breda.

Almere City FC carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.4 for NAC Breda. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 49% for Almere City FC to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Almere City FC to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Almere City FC's ratings add 4 points and NAC Breda's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 49%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level43%−1
  4. Almere City FC's ratings47%+4
  5. NAC Breda's ratings49%+2

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Almere City FCNAC Breda
14Matches14
9W 1D 4LRecord7W 4D 3L
30 2.1 per gameGoals scored25 1.8 per game
14 1.0 per gameGoals conceded20 1.4 per game
5 of 14Clean sheets4 of 14
1 of 14Failed to score2 of 14
1 of 3Penalties scored1 of 1
17 1.2 per gameYellow cards26 1.9 per game
0Red cards1
4-2-3-1 9×Usual shape4-2-3-1 7×

Almere City FC at home · NAC Breda away

6Played8
4W 0D 2LRecord4W 3D 1L
10–5Goals for – against14–10
3 of 6Clean sheets3 of 8

League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Almere City FC 14, NAC Breda 14.

Almere City FC scored 4323710
NAC Breda conceded 332534

Almere City FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); NAC Breda have let in 4 there.

NAC Breda scored 345157
Almere City FC conceded 220452

NAC Breda score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Almere City FC have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Almere City FC

  • at Jong Utrecht27 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 45%
  • at FC OSS4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 40%
  • vs VVV Venlo11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 50%
  • vs Vitesse18 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 51%

NAC Breda

  • vs Den Bosch27 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 49%
  • vs FC Volendam6 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 44%
  • at Jong AZ11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 35%
  • vs Roda18 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 45%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.