Regular Season - 16 · 20 November 2026, 19:00 UTC

Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo Eerste Divisie prediction

De Vliert

Our model says: Den Bosch 2–1 VVV Venlo

The model makes it 38% Den Bosch, 27% draw, 35% VVV Venlo — fair odds of 2.63, 3.70 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Den Bosch 1.50, VVV Venlo 1.43.

Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.

A tight game: Den Bosch and VVV Venlo are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 10 November 2026. Den Bosch's rating is built from 54 Eerste Divisie matches and VVV Venlo's from 52, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Den Bosch are 9th on 19 points from 14 games; VVV Venlo are 2nd on 29 points from 14 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
  • Den Bosch are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Jong Utrecht.
  • VVV Venlo are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Jong PSV U21.
  • Last 6 meetings: Den Bosch 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 12 December 2025, ended Den Bosch 0–1 VVV Venlo.

More Eerste Divisie predictions

All Eerste Divisie predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo

60%
Both teams to score
56%
Over 2.5 goals
44%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Den Bosch win Draw VVV Venlo win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 2–19%
  3. 1–28%
  4. 1–07%
  5. 0–17%
  6. 2–26%
  7. 2–06%

Scores read Den Bosch first; the other scorelines share the remaining 44%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Den Bosch at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo

Den Bosch

Eerste Divisie

  • D1-1Jong Utrecht7 November 2026
  • W5-0away to Emmen1 November 2026
  • D2-2MVV23 October 2026
  • W2-1FC OSS16 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Jong AZ9 October 2026

VVV Venlo

Eerste Divisie

  • D1-1Jong PSV U216 November 2026
  • W2-1away to MVV31 October 2026
  • W4-2away to Dordrecht24 October 2026
  • D4-4Jong AZ16 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Jong Ajax9 October 2026

What these results say

  • Den Bosch went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Den Bosch scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • VVV Venlo went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • VVV Venlo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • VVV Venlo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Den Bosch145452422+219
2VVV Venlo149233722+1529

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Den Bosch

Chance to finish in the top eight · 35% today

Win 41%
Draw 33%
Defeat 29%

VVV Venlo

Chance to finish in the top eight · 95% today

Win 97%
Draw 95%
Defeat 94%

From our Eerste Divisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo

  • 12 December 2025Den Bosch 0–1 VVV VenloEerste Divisie
  • 30 September 2025VVV Venlo 0–1 Den BoschEerste Divisie
  • 18 April 2025Den Bosch 0–0 VVV VenloEerste Divisie
  • 25 October 2024VVV Venlo 1–2 Den BoschEerste Divisie
  • 26 April 2024VVV Venlo 2–3 Den BoschEerste Divisie
  • 20 October 2023Den Bosch 1–2 VVV VenloEerste Divisie

Leading scorers: Den Bosch and VVV Venlo

Den Bosch

GoalsAssists

  • S. Karlsson Grach60

VVV Venlo

GoalsAssists

  • L. Schmidt51
  • É. Clancy50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour VVV Venlo (second, with Den Bosch ninth), while our numbers lean to Den Bosch. Den Bosch rate 0.56 in attack and 1.70 in defence, VVV Venlo 0.70 and 1.65 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Den Bosch a 0% chance of the title and VVV Venlo 3.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Den Bosch VVV Venlo
0.56 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.7
1.7 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.65
1.50 Model expected goals (this match) 1.43

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Den Bosch the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Den Bosch against 1.43 for VVV Venlo. Den Bosch's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.65 for VVV Venlo.

Den Bosch carry a model rating of 6.3 against 6.42 for VVV Venlo. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 38% for Den Bosch to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Den Bosch to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Den Bosch's ratings take away 4 points and VVV Venlo's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 38%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level45%+1
  4. Den Bosch's ratings41%−4
  5. VVV Venlo's ratings38%−3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Den BoschVVV Venlo
14Matches14
5W 4D 5LRecord9W 2D 3L
24 1.7 per gameGoals scored37 2.6 per game
22 1.6 per gameGoals conceded22 1.6 per game
2 of 14Clean sheets4 of 14
2 of 14Failed to score0 of 14
1 of 2Penalties scored2 of 2
14 1.0 per gameYellow cards24 1.7 per game
1Red cards0
3-1-4-2 5×Usual shape4-2-3-1 9×

Den Bosch at home · VVV Venlo away

8Played7
3W 4D 1LRecord5W 0D 2L
15–13Goals for – against18–11
0 of 8Clean sheets2 of 7

League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Den Bosch 14, VVV Venlo 14.

Den Bosch scored 632256
VVV Venlo conceded 437313
VVV Venlo scored 446966
Den Bosch conceded 133635

VVV Venlo score most often in the 46–60 minute window (9 goals); Den Bosch have let in 6 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Den Bosch

  • at NAC Breda27 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 24%
  • vs Jong Ajax4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 49%
  • at Roda11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 27%
  • at Dordrecht18 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 38%

VVV Venlo

  • vs Waalwijk27 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 48%
  • at Vitesse4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 32%
  • at Almere City FC11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 25%
  • vs Jong Utrecht19 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 59%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.