Helmond Sport
vs
Dordrecht
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: Helmond Sport 2–1 Dordrecht
The model makes it 49% Helmond Sport, 26% draw, 25% Dordrecht — fair odds of 2.04, 3.85 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Helmond Sport 1.78, Dordrecht 1.11.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Helmond Sport's rating is built from 52 Eerste Divisie matches and Dordrecht's from 52, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Helmond Sport are 17th on 12 points from 14 games; Dordrecht are 18th on 12 points from 14 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- Helmond Sport have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to FC Volendam.
- Dordrecht are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to NAC Breda.
- Last 6 meetings: Dordrecht 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 3 February 2026, ended Dordrecht 3–0 Helmond Sport.
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht
Has the model earned this number?
Helmond Sport at 49%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht
Helmond Sport
Eerste Divisie
- L2-3FC Volendam6 November 2026
- W3-2FC Eindhoven30 October 2026
- L4-5away to Jong AZ23 October 2026
- L0-2NAC Breda16 October 2026
- L1-3away to FC OSS9 October 2026
Dordrecht
Eerste Divisie
- D0-0NAC Breda6 November 2026
- L2-3away to Jong Utrecht2 November 2026
- L2-4VVV Venlo24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Jong PSV U2119 October 2026
- L0-3Emmen9 October 2026
What these results say
- Helmond Sport conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Helmond Sport failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Helmond Sport scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dordrecht failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Helmond Sport | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 25 | 31 | -6 | 12 |
| 18 | Dordrecht | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 34 | -16 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Helmond Sport
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 40% today
Dordrecht
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 64% today
From our Eerste Divisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht
- 3 February 2026Dordrecht 3–0 Helmond SportEerste Divisie
- 24 October 2025Helmond Sport 1–2 DordrechtEerste Divisie
- 8 February 2025Helmond Sport 0–1 DordrechtEerste Divisie
- 10 November 2024Dordrecht 4–0 Helmond SportEerste Divisie
- 12 January 2024Dordrecht 2–0 Helmond SportEerste Divisie
- 23 October 2023Helmond Sport 1–1 DordrechtEerste Divisie
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Helmond Sport the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Helmond Sport against 1.11 for Dordrecht. Helmond Sport's attack/defence rating is 0.53/2.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/2.06 for Dordrecht.
How the model reaches 49% for Helmond Sport to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Helmond Sport to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Helmond Sport's ratings add 3 points and Dordrecht's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 49%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Helmond Sport's ratings47%+3
- Dordrecht's ratings49%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Helmond Sport at home · Dordrecht away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Helmond Sport 14, Dordrecht 14.
Dordrecht score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Helmond Sport have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Helmond Sport
- at Emmen28 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 27%
- vs Jong Utrecht4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 45%
- at Vitesse11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 22%
- vs Jong AZ18 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 41%
Dordrecht
- vs Vitesse27 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 31%
- at MVV4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 28%
- at De Graafschap11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 21%
- vs Den Bosch18 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 34%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.