FC Thun
vs
FC Basel 1893
Super League prediction
Our model says: FC Thun 2–1 FC Basel 1893
The model makes it 46% FC Thun, 24% draw, 30% FC Basel 1893 — fair odds of 2.17, 4.17 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FC Thun 2.08, FC Basel 1893 1.60.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. FC Thun's rating is built from 48 Swiss Super League matches and FC Basel 1893's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 523 matches.
Key facts
- FC Thun are 9th on 10 points from 10 games; FC Basel 1893 are 7th on 13 points from 10 games — Super League.
- FC Thun have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat away to FC Zurich.
- FC Basel 1893 have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to FC Vaduz.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Basel 1893 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 9 August 2026, ended FC Basel 1893 4–2 FC Thun.
More Swiss Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Thun at 46% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893
FC Thun
Super League
- L2-4away to FC Zurich10 October 2026
- W2-1away to FC Vaduz20 September 2026
- L2-4Servette FC16 September 2026
- L0-1Grasshoppers12 September 2026
- L2-3away to FC Sion6 September 2026
FC Basel 1893
Super League
- L0-3away to FC Vaduz11 October 2026
- L1-3FC St. Gallen20 September 2026
- W4-2away to FC Luzern13 September 2026
- L1-3FC Lugano6 September 2026
- L1-2FC Sion3 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Thun conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Thun failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Thun scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Basel 1893 conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for FC Basel 1893 had three goals or more.
- FC Basel 1893 failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | FC Thun | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 27 | -10 | 10 |
| 7 | FC Basel 1893 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893
- 9 August 2026FC Basel 1893 4–2 FC ThunSuper League
- 2 May 2026FC Basel 1893 3–1 FC ThunSuper League
- 18 April 2026FC Thun 3–1 FC Basel 1893Super League
- 1 February 2026FC Basel 1893 1–2 FC ThunSuper League
- 13 September 2025FC Thun 1–3 FC Basel 1893Super League
- 11 January 2025FC Basel 1893 2–0 FC ThunFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: FC Thun and FC Basel 1893
FC Thun
No player in Super League's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
FC Basel 1893
GoalsAssists
- Ž. Celar61
- A. Sow34
- X. Shaqiri31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Thun carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.4 for FC Basel 1893. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.08 goals for FC Thun and 1.60 for FC Basel 1893. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Thun rate 0.73 in attack and 1.72 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Basel 1893 rate 0.62 and 1.53.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FC Basel 1893, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Thun the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.08 expected goals for FC Thun against 1.60 for FC Basel 1893. FC Thun's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.72 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.53 for FC Basel 1893.
How the model reaches 46% for FC Thun to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for FC Thun to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, FC Thun's ratings take away 23 points and FC Basel 1893's ratings add 25 points, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground38%
- Home advantage44%+6
- FC Thun's ratings21%−23
- FC Basel 1893's ratings46%+25
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Thun at home · FC Basel 1893 away
League matches only, Super League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
FC ThunFC Basel 1893
FC Thun are 9th after 10 Super League matches (between 1st and 10th so far); FC Basel 1893 are 7th after 10 (between 1st and 7th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League matches this season: FC Thun 10, FC Basel 1893 10.
FC Thun score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); FC Basel 1893 have let in 1 there.
FC Basel 1893 score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); FC Thun have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
FC Thun
- at BSC Young Boys21 Nov · Super Leaguewin 17%
- at Ajax26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 7%
FC Basel 1893
- vs FC Luzern22 Nov · Super Leaguewin 41%
- at Grasshoppers28 Nov · Super Leaguewin 40%
- vs Servette FC6 Dec · Super Leaguewin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.