Servette FC
vs
FC Zurich
Super League prediction
Our model says: Servette FC 2–1 FC Zurich
The model makes it 54% Servette FC, 24% draw, 22% FC Zurich — fair odds of 1.85, 4.17 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Servette FC 2.06, FC Zurich 1.12.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,566 settled matches.
Edge to Servette FC: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Servette FC's rating is built from 49 Swiss Super League matches and FC Zurich's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 523 matches.
Key facts
- Servette FC are 5th on 16 points from 11 games; FC Zurich are 4th on 17 points from 11 games — Super League.
- Servette FC have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to FC Vaduz.
- FC Zurich are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to FC Luzern.
- Last 6 meetings: Servette FC 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 1 August 2026, ended FC Zurich 2–1 Servette FC.
More Swiss Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Servette FC vs FC Zurich
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Servette FC at 54% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 1,179 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Servette FC vs FC Zurich
Servette FC
Super League
- W2-1FC Vaduz24 October 2026
- W3-0FC Sion10 October 2026
- L2-3away to BSC Young Boys19 September 2026
- W4-2away to FC Thun16 September 2026
- W1-0away to Lausanne13 September 2026
FC Zurich
Super League
- W2-1FC Luzern24 October 2026
- W4-2FC Thun10 October 2026
- D1-1away to FC Sion19 September 2026
- W2-1FC Vaduz13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Grasshoppers5 September 2026
What these results say
- Servette FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Servette FC won 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Servette FC had three goals or more.
- FC Zurich went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- FC Zurich scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Zurich conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Servette FC | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 16 |
| 4 | FC Zurich | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Servette FC vs FC Zurich
- 1 August 2026FC Zurich 2–1 Servette FCSuper League
- 16 May 2026FC Zurich 0–2 Servette FCSuper League
- 7 March 2026Servette FC 2–1 FC ZurichSuper League
- 18 January 2026Servette FC 1–1 FC ZurichSuper League
- 13 September 2025FC Zurich 2–1 Servette FCSuper League
- 9 March 2025FC Zurich 1–3 Servette FCSuper League
Leading scorers: Servette FC and FC Zurich
Servette FC
GoalsAssists
- K. Mutandwa40
FC Zurich
GoalsAssists
- U. Emmanuel43
- P. Keny41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Servette FC carry a model rating of 6.56 against 6.36 for FC Zurich. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.06 goals for Servette FC and 1.12 for FC Zurich. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Servette FC rate 0.68 in attack and 1.22 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Zurich rate 0.61 and 1.62.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FC Zurich, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Servette FC the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Servette FC against 1.12 for FC Zurich. Servette FC's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.62 for FC Zurich.
How the model reaches 54% for Servette FC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for Servette FC to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Servette FC's ratings take away 17 points and FC Zurich's ratings add 27 points, which lands on the published 54%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground38%
- Home advantage44%+6
- Servette FC's ratings27%−17
- FC Zurich's ratings54%+27
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Servette FC at home · FC Zurich away
League matches only, Super League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Servette FCFC Zurich
Servette FC are 5th after 11 Super League matches (between 4th and 12th so far); FC Zurich are 4th after 11 (between 4th and 10th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League matches this season: Servette FC 11, FC Zurich 11.
Servette FC score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); FC Zurich have let in 1 there.
FC Zurich score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Servette FC have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Servette FC
- at FC Sion21 Nov · Super Leaguewin 27%
- vs Lausanne28 Nov · Super Leaguewin 58%
- at FC Basel 18936 Dec · Super Leaguewin 39%
- at FC Luzern13 Dec · Super Leaguewin 38%
FC Zurich
- vs FC St. Gallen22 Nov · Super Leaguewin 36%
- at FC Vaduz28 Nov · Super Leaguewin 24%
- vs FC Lugano5 Dec · Super Leaguewin 17%
- vs Grasshoppers12 Dec · Super Leaguewin 51%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.