Yunnan Yukun
vs
Wuhan Three Towns
Super League prediction
Our model says: Yunnan Yukun 2–1 Wuhan Three Towns
The model makes it 53% Yunnan Yukun, 21% draw, 26% Wuhan Three Towns — fair odds of 1.89, 4.76 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (7%).
Expected goals: Yunnan Yukun 2.70, Wuhan Three Towns 1.78.
Both teams to score: 78%. Over 2.5 goals: 82%, under 2.5: 18%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,566 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Yunnan Yukun's rating is built from 59 Chinese Super League matches and Wuhan Three Towns's from 59, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 712 matches.
Key facts
- Yunnan Yukun are 6th on 40 points from 29 games; Wuhan Three Towns are 15th on 22 points from 29 games — Super League.
- Yunnan Yukun are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Qingdao Youth Island.
- Wuhan Three Towns have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 3-5 defeat at home to Shandong Luneng.
- Last 3 meetings: level at 1 win each, 1 draw; the most recent, 31 May 2026, ended Wuhan Three Towns 1–1 Yunnan Yukun.
More Chinese Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Yunnan Yukun at 53% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 1,179 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns
Yunnan Yukun
Super League
- D1-1away to Qingdao Youth Island24 October 2026
- D1-1Chongqing Tongliang Long17 October 2026
- L1-7away to Shanghai Shenhua10 October 2026
- W5-0Shenyang Urban6 September 2026
- L0-6away to Hangzhou Greentown29 August 2026
Wuhan Three Towns
Super League
- L3-5Shandong Luneng24 October 2026
- L1-3Shanghai Shenhua18 October 2026
- D1-1away to Shenyang Urban11 October 2026
- L1-4away to Hangzhou Greentown18 September 2026
- D1-1Henan Jianye12 September 2026
What these results say
- Yunnan Yukun failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Yunnan Yukun scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Yunnan Yukun conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Wuhan Three Towns did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Wuhan Three Towns scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Wuhan Three Towns conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Yunnan Yukun | 29 | 11 | 7 | 11 | 57 | 60 | -3 | 40 |
| 15 | Wuhan Three Towns | 29 | 5 | 12 | 12 | 44 | 55 | -11 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns
- 31 May 2026Wuhan Three Towns 1–1 Yunnan YukunSuper League
- 15 August 2025Yunnan Yukun 2–1 Wuhan Three TownsSuper League
- 12 April 2025Wuhan Three Towns 3–1 Yunnan YukunSuper League
Leading scorers: Yunnan Yukun and Wuhan Three Towns
Yunnan Yukun
GoalsAssists
- O. Maritu219
- Cléber145
Wuhan Three Towns
GoalsAssists
- J. Cádiz216
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Yunnan Yukun carry a model rating of 6.24 against 6.15 for Wuhan Three Towns. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.70 goals for Yunnan Yukun and 1.78 for Wuhan Three Towns. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Yunnan Yukun rate 0.66 in attack and 2.32 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Wuhan Three Towns rate 0.53 and 2.16.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Yunnan Yukun the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.70 expected goals for Yunnan Yukun against 1.78 for Wuhan Three Towns. Yunnan Yukun's attack/defence rating is 0.66/2.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/2.16 for Wuhan Three Towns.
How the model reaches 53% for Yunnan Yukun to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Yunnan Yukun to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Yunnan Yukun's ratings take away 32 points and Wuhan Three Towns's ratings add 40 points, which lands on the published 53%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage45%+8
- Yunnan Yukun's ratings13%−32
- Wuhan Three Towns's ratings53%+40
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Yunnan Yukun at home · Wuhan Three Towns away
League matches only, Super League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League matches this season: Yunnan Yukun 29, Wuhan Three Towns 29.
Yunnan Yukun score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Wuhan Three Towns have let in 15 there.
Wuhan Three Towns score most often in the 61–75 minute window (11 goals); Yunnan Yukun have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.