FC St. Gallen
vs
Servette FC
Super League prediction
Our model says: FC St. Gallen 2–1 Servette FC
The model makes it 40% FC St. Gallen, 27% draw, 33% Servette FC — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FC St. Gallen 1.56, Servette FC 1.35.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- FC St. Gallen are 4th on 16 points from 10 games; Servette FC are 6th on 13 points from 10 games — Super League.
- FC St. Gallen have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Lausanne.
- Servette FC have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to FC Sion.
- Last 6 meetings: FC St. Gallen 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 6 September 2026, ended Servette FC 0–2 FC St. Gallen.
More Swiss Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC St. Gallen vs Servette FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC St. Gallen at 40% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC St. Gallen vs Servette FC
FC St. Gallen
- W1-0Lausanne11 October 2026
- W3-1away to FC Basel 189320 September 2026
- L1-4away to FC Lugano16 September 2026
- L0-3FC Sion12 September 2026
- W2-0away to Servette FC6 September 2026
Servette FC
- W3-0FC Sion10 October 2026
- L2-3away to BSC Young Boys19 September 2026
- W4-2away to FC Thun16 September 2026
- W1-0away to Lausanne13 September 2026
- L0-2FC St. Gallen6 September 2026
What these results say
- FC St. Gallen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Servette FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | FC St. Gallen | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
| 6 | Servette FC | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
FC St. Gallen
Chance to finish in the top four
Servette FC
Chance to finish in the top four · 33% today
From our Super League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: FC St. Gallen vs Servette FC
- 6 September 2026Servette FC 0–2 FC St. GallenSuper League
- 21 February 2026Servette FC 1–1 FC St. GallenSuper League
- 25 January 2026FC St. Gallen 2–4 Servette FCSuper League
- 2 August 2025Servette FC 1–4 FC St. GallenSuper League
- 6 April 2025FC St. Gallen 1–0 Servette FCSuper League
- 18 January 2025Servette FC 1–1 FC St. GallenSuper League
Leading scorers: FC St. Gallen and Servette FC
FC St. Gallen
GoalsAssists
- A. Balde31
Servette FC
GoalsAssists
- K. Mutandwa40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC St. Gallen carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.55 for Servette FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.56 goals for FC St. Gallen and 1.35 for Servette FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC St. Gallen rate 0.68 in attack and 1.34 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Servette FC rate 0.67 and 1.23.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC St. Gallen a 0.1% chance of the title and Servette FC 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC St. Gallen the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.56 expected goals for FC St. Gallen against 1.35 for Servette FC. FC St. Gallen's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.23 for Servette FC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC St. Gallen at home · Servette FC away
League matches only, Super League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
FC St. GallenServette FC
FC St. Gallen are 4th after 10 Super League matches (between 2nd and 5th so far); Servette FC are 4th after 10 (between 4th and 12th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League matches this season: FC St. Gallen 10, Servette FC 10.
FC St. Gallen score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Servette FC have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
FC St. Gallen
- vs FC Lugano8 Nov · Super Leaguewin 23%
- at FC Zurich22 Nov · Super Leaguewin 40%
- at FC Thun29 Nov · Super Leaguewin 37%
- vs Grasshoppers6 Dec · Super Leaguewin 59%
Servette FC
- vs FC Zurich8 Nov · Super Leaguewin 54%
- at FC Sion21 Nov · Super Leaguewin 27%
- vs Lausanne28 Nov · Super Leaguewin 57%
- at FC Basel 18936 Dec · Super Leaguewin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.