Celtic
vs
Kilmarnock
Premiership prediction
Our model says: Celtic 3–0 Kilmarnock
The model makes it 81% Celtic, 12% draw, 7% Kilmarnock — fair odds of 1.23, 8.33 and 14.29. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Celtic 3.60, Kilmarnock 0.81.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 81%, under 2.5: 19%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,566 settled matches.
One-sided: Celtic are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Celtic's rating is built from 47 Scottish Premiership matches and Kilmarnock's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 526 matches.
Key facts
- Celtic are top on 24 points from 9 games; Kilmarnock are 11th on 8 points from 10 games — Premiership.
- Celtic have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 7-1 win at home to Heart of Midlothian.
- Kilmarnock have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Falkirk.
- Last 6 meetings: Celtic 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 9 August 2026, ended Kilmarnock 1–5 Celtic.
More Scottish Premiership predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Celtic vs Kilmarnock
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Celtic at 81% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 378 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Celtic vs Kilmarnock
Celtic
Premiership
- W7-1Heart of Midlothian18 October 2026
- W2-0away to Motherwell11 October 2026
- L0-1Rangers20 September 2026
- W1-0away to St Johnstone9 September 2026
- W2-1away to St Mirren5 September 2026
Kilmarnock
Premiership
- L0-3away to Falkirk24 October 2026
- W3-2Motherwell17 October 2026
- L1-3away to Rangers10 October 2026
- D1-1Heart of Midlothian19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Hibernian15 September 2026
What these results say
- Celtic won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Celtic scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kilmarnock scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kilmarnock conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 5 | +18 | 24 |
| 11 | Kilmarnock | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 23 | -13 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Celtic vs Kilmarnock
- 9 August 2026Kilmarnock 1–5 CelticPremiership
- 15 February 2026Kilmarnock 2–3 CelticPremiership
- 9 November 2025Celtic 4–0 KilmarnockPremiership
- 14 September 2025Kilmarnock 1–2 CelticPremiership
- 12 April 2025Celtic 5–1 KilmarnockPremiership
- 18 January 2025Celtic 2–1 KilmarnockFA Cup
Leading scorers: Celtic and Kilmarnock
Celtic
GoalsAssists
- B. Nygren64
- C. Durán55
- K. Høgh32
Kilmarnock
GoalsAssists
- G. Kiltie30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Celtic carry a model rating of 6.85 against 6.25 for Kilmarnock. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.60 goals for Celtic and 0.81 for Kilmarnock. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Celtic rate 1.04 in attack and 1.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kilmarnock rate 0.60 and 2.03.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Celtic a 83.9% chance of the title and Kilmarnock 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Celtic the highest probability at 81%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.60 expected goals for Celtic against 0.81 for Kilmarnock. Celtic's attack/defence rating is 1.04/1.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/2.03 for Kilmarnock.
How the model reaches 81% for Celtic to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Celtic to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Celtic's ratings change nothing and Kilmarnock's ratings add 37 points, which lands on the published 81%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Celtic's ratings44%±0
- Kilmarnock's ratings81%+37
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Celtic at home · Kilmarnock away
League matches only, Premiership, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premiership matches this season: Celtic 9, Kilmarnock 10.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Celtic
- vs St Mirren21 Nov · Premiershipwin 79%
Kilmarnock
- vs Aberdeen21 Nov · Premiershipwin 39%
- at St Mirren28 Nov · Premiershipwin 32%
- vs Hibernian2 Dec · Premiershipwin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.