FC Thun
vs
FC Lugano
Super League prediction
Our model says: FC Thun 1–2 FC Lugano
The model makes it 19% FC Thun, 22% draw, 59% FC Lugano — fair odds of 5.26, 4.55 and 1.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (10%).
Expected goals: FC Thun 1.09, FC Lugano 2.28.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: FC Lugano are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- FC Thun are 9th on 10 points from 10 games; FC Lugano are top on 28 points from 10 games — Super League.
- FC Thun have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat away to FC Zurich.
- FC Lugano are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 4-0 win at home to FC Luzern.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Lugano 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended FC Thun 0–1 FC Lugano.
More Swiss Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Thun vs FC Lugano
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Lugano at 59% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Thun vs FC Lugano
FC Thun
- L2-4away to FC Zurich10 October 2026
- W2-1away to FC Vaduz20 September 2026
- L2-4Servette FC16 September 2026
- L0-1Grasshoppers12 September 2026
- L2-3away to FC Sion6 September 2026
FC Lugano
- W4-0FC Luzern10 October 2026
- W4-0away to Lausanne20 September 2026
- W4-1FC St. Gallen16 September 2026
- D2-2BSC Young Boys12 September 2026
- W3-1away to FC Basel 18936 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Thun conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Thun failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Thun scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Lugano went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- FC Lugano scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for FC Lugano had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | FC Thun | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 27 | -10 | 10 |
| 1 | FC Lugano | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 31 | 7 | +24 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
FC Thun
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 41% today
FC Lugano
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 89% today
From our Super League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: FC Thun vs FC Lugano
- 25 April 2026FC Thun 0–1 FC LuganoSuper League
- 4 April 2026FC Lugano 1–0 FC ThunSuper League
- 22 November 2025FC Thun 0–1 FC LuganoSuper League
- 27 July 2025FC Lugano 1–2 FC ThunSuper League
- 10 February 2022FC Thun 3–4 FC LuganoSchweizer Cup
- 15 July 2020FC Lugano 1–1 FC ThunSuper League
Leading scorers: FC Thun and FC Lugano
FC Thun
No player in Super League's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
FC Lugano
GoalsAssists
- D. Moncada41
- Daniel Dos Santos40
- E. Pihlström31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FC Thun carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.91 for FC Lugano. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.09 goals for FC Thun and 2.28 for FC Lugano. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Thun rate 0.72 in attack and 1.70 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Lugano rate 0.89 and 0.81.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Thun a 0% chance of the title and FC Lugano 89.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Lugano the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.09 expected goals for FC Thun against 2.28 for FC Lugano. FC Thun's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/0.81 for FC Lugano.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Thun at home · FC Lugano away
League matches only, Super League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
FC ThunFC Lugano
FC Thun are 9th after 10 Super League matches (between 1st and 10th so far); FC Lugano are 1st after 10 (between 1st and 3rd). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League matches this season: FC Thun 10, FC Lugano 10.
FC Thun score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); FC Lugano have let in 2 there.
FC Lugano score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); FC Thun have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
FC Thun
- at Lausanne1 Nov · Super Leaguewin 41%
- vs Heart of Midlothian5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 34%
- vs FC Basel 18938 Nov · Super Leaguewin 46%
FC Lugano
- vs FC Basel 18931 Nov · Super Leaguewin 70%
- vs Kauno Žalgiris5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 74%
- at FC St. Gallen8 Nov · Super Leaguewin 51%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.