FC Luzern
vs
FC Sion
Super League prediction
Our model says: FC Luzern 1–2 FC Sion
The model makes it 33% FC Luzern, 25% draw, 42% FC Sion — fair odds of 3.03, 4.00 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: FC Luzern 1.58, FC Sion 1.84.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to FC Sion: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- FC Luzern are 8th on 12 points from 10 games; FC Sion are 3rd on 19 points from 10 games — Super League.
- FC Luzern have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-4 defeat away to FC Lugano.
- FC Sion have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Servette FC.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Sion 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 2 August 2026, ended FC Sion 3–0 FC Luzern.
More Swiss Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Luzern vs FC Sion
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Sion at 42% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Luzern vs FC Sion
FC Luzern
- L0-4away to FC Lugano10 October 2026
- W5-1Grasshoppers19 September 2026
- L2-4FC Basel 189313 September 2026
- D3-3away to BSC Young Boys5 September 2026
- W2-1FC Vaduz2 September 2026
FC Sion
- L0-3away to Servette FC10 October 2026
- D1-1FC Zurich19 September 2026
- W5-2away to Grasshoppers15 September 2026
- W3-0away to FC St. Gallen12 September 2026
- W3-2FC Thun6 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Luzern conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for FC Luzern had three goals or more.
- FC Luzern scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Sion scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Sion conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Sion had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | FC Luzern | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 12 |
| 3 | FC Sion | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 17 | +6 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Luzern vs FC Sion
- 2 August 2026FC Sion 3–0 FC LuzernSuper League
- 7 February 2026FC Sion 0–0 FC LuzernSuper League
- 24 January 2026FC Sion 1–1 FC LuzernSuper League
- 4 October 2025FC Luzern 3–3 FC SionSuper League
- 23 February 2025FC Luzern 2–1 FC SionSuper League
- 10 November 2024FC Sion 4–2 FC LuzernSuper League
Leading scorers: FC Luzern and FC Sion
FC Luzern
GoalsAssists
- D. Mikołajewski43
FC Sion
GoalsAssists
- Winsley Boteli Mokango64
- J. Lukembila34
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FC Luzern carry a model rating of 6.46 against 6.64 for FC Sion. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.58 goals for FC Luzern and 1.84 for FC Sion. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Luzern rate 0.73 in attack and 1.61 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Sion rate 0.76 and 1.16.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Luzern a 0% chance of the title and FC Sion 1.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Sion the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for FC Luzern against 1.84 for FC Sion. FC Luzern's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.61 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.16 for FC Sion.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Luzern at home · FC Sion away
League matches only, Super League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
FC LuzernFC Sion
FC Luzern are 8th after 10 Super League matches (between 4th and 12th so far); FC Sion are 3rd after 10 (between 2nd and 11th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League matches this season: FC Luzern 10, FC Sion 10.
FC Sion score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); FC Luzern have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
FC Luzern
- vs BSC Young Boys7 Nov · Super Leaguewin 32%
- at FC Basel 189322 Nov · Super Leaguewin 35%
- vs FC Lugano29 Nov · Super Leaguewin 21%
- at FC Thun5 Dec · Super Leaguewin 34%
FC Sion
- at FC Vaduz7 Nov · Super Leaguewin 39%
- vs Servette FC21 Nov · Super Leaguewin 47%
- vs BSC Young Boys29 Nov · Super Leaguewin 43%
- at Lausanne6 Dec · Super Leaguewin 51%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.