FC St. Gallen
vs
FC Lugano
Super League prediction
Our model says: FC St. Gallen 0–1 FC Lugano
The model makes it 22% FC St. Gallen, 26% draw, 52% FC Lugano — fair odds of 4.55, 3.85 and 1.92. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: FC St. Gallen 0.99, FC Lugano 1.79.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,566 settled matches.
One-sided: FC Lugano are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- FC St. Gallen are 6th on 16 points from 11 games; FC Lugano are top on 28 points from 10 games — Super League.
- FC St. Gallen have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to BSC Young Boys.
- FC Lugano are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 4-0 win at home to FC Luzern.
- Last 6 meetings: FC St. Gallen 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 16 September 2026, ended FC Lugano 4–1 FC St. Gallen.
More Swiss Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC St. Gallen vs FC Lugano
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Lugano at 52% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 1,179 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC St. Gallen vs FC Lugano
FC St. Gallen
Super League
- L0-2away to BSC Young Boys24 October 2026
- W1-0Lausanne11 October 2026
- W3-1away to FC Basel 189320 September 2026
- L1-4away to FC Lugano16 September 2026
- L0-3FC Sion12 September 2026
FC Lugano
Super League
- W4-0FC Luzern10 October 2026
- W4-0away to Lausanne20 September 2026
- W4-1FC St. Gallen16 September 2026
- D2-2BSC Young Boys12 September 2026
- W3-1away to FC Basel 18936 September 2026
What these results say
- FC St. Gallen conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Lugano went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- FC Lugano scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for FC Lugano had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | FC St. Gallen | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 16 |
| 1 | FC Lugano | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 31 | 7 | +24 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC St. Gallen vs FC Lugano
- 16 September 2026FC Lugano 4–1 FC St. GallenSuper League
- 10 May 2026FC Lugano 1–2 FC St. GallenSuper League
- 17 March 2026FC St. Gallen 1–1 FC LuganoSuper League
- 26 November 2025FC Lugano 1–3 FC St. GallenSuper League
- 13 September 2025FC St. Gallen 1–0 FC LuganoSuper League
- 13 April 2025FC Lugano 1–1 FC St. GallenSuper League
Leading scorers: FC St. Gallen and FC Lugano
FC St. Gallen
GoalsAssists
- A. Balde31
FC Lugano
GoalsAssists
- D. Moncada41
- Daniel Dos Santos40
- E. Pihlström31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FC St. Gallen carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.91 for FC Lugano. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.99 goals for FC St. Gallen and 1.79 for FC Lugano. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC St. Gallen rate 0.65 in attack and 1.32 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Lugano rate 0.90 and 0.82.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC St. Gallen a 0% chance of the title and FC Lugano 89.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Lugano the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.99 expected goals for FC St. Gallen against 1.79 for FC Lugano. FC St. Gallen's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.9/0.82 for FC Lugano.
How the model reaches 52% for FC Lugano to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for FC Lugano to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, FC St. Gallen's ratings add 20 points and FC Lugano's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 52%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage31%−6
- FC St. Gallen's ratings51%+20
- FC Lugano's ratings52%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC St. Gallen at home · FC Lugano away
League matches only, Super League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
FC St. GallenFC Lugano
FC St. Gallen are 6th after 11 Super League matches (between 2nd and 6th so far); FC Lugano are 1st after 10 (between 1st and 3rd). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League matches this season: FC St. Gallen 11, FC Lugano 10.
FC St. Gallen score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); FC Lugano have let in 4 there.
FC Lugano score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); FC St. Gallen have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
FC St. Gallen
- at FC Zurich22 Nov · Super Leaguewin 38%
- at FC Thun29 Nov · Super Leaguewin 36%
- vs Grasshoppers6 Dec · Super Leaguewin 58%
- vs FC Vaduz12 Dec · Super Leaguewin 44%
FC Lugano
- vs Grasshoppers21 Nov · Super Leaguewin 78%
- at FK Jablonec26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.