Heart of Midlothian
vs
Falkirk
Premiership prediction
Our model says: Heart of Midlothian 2–1 Falkirk
The model makes it 56% Heart of Midlothian, 22% draw, 22% Falkirk — fair odds of 1.79, 4.55 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Heart of Midlothian 2.26, Falkirk 1.23.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,566 settled matches.
Edge to Heart of Midlothian: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Heart of Midlothian are 3rd on 16 points from 9 games; Falkirk are 7th on 12 points from 10 games — Premiership.
- Heart of Midlothian have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-7 defeat away to Celtic.
- Falkirk have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Kilmarnock.
- Last 6 meetings: Heart of Midlothian 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 15 September 2026, ended Falkirk 2–1 Heart of Midlothian.
More Scottish Premiership predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Heart of Midlothian vs Falkirk
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Heart of Midlothian at 56% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 1,179 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Heart of Midlothian vs Falkirk
Heart of Midlothian
Premiership
- L1-7away to Celtic18 October 2026
- W5-0St Mirren10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Kilmarnock19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Falkirk15 September 2026
- W2-1Dundee6 September 2026
Falkirk
Premiership
- W3-0Kilmarnock24 October 2026
- W2-1away to Hibernian17 October 2026
- L1-2Dundee10 October 2026
- D1-1away to St Johnstone19 September 2026
- W2-1Heart of Midlothian15 September 2026
What these results say
- Heart of Midlothian scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Heart of Midlothian conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Heart of Midlothian had three goals or more.
- Falkirk scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Falkirk conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Falkirk had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Heart of Midlothian | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 15 | +5 | 16 |
| 7 | Falkirk | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Heart of Midlothian vs Falkirk
- 15 September 2026Falkirk 2–1 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 13 May 2026Heart of Midlothian 3–0 FalkirkPremiership
- 21 February 2026Heart of Midlothian 1–0 FalkirkPremiership
- 17 January 2026Heart of Midlothian 1–1 FalkirkFA Cup
- 13 December 2025Falkirk 0–2 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 27 September 2025Heart of Midlothian 3–0 FalkirkPremiership
Leading scorers: Heart of Midlothian and Falkirk
Heart of Midlothian
GoalsAssists
- J. McPake35
- Cláudio Braga32
- C. Miller31
Falkirk
GoalsAssists
- J. Murrell50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Heart of Midlothian carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.39 for Falkirk. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.26 goals for Heart of Midlothian and 1.23 for Falkirk. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Heart of Midlothian rate 0.84 in attack and 1.50 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Falkirk rate 0.63 and 1.58.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Heart of Midlothian a 2.1% chance of the title and Falkirk 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Heart of Midlothian the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.26 expected goals for Heart of Midlothian against 1.23 for Falkirk. Heart of Midlothian's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.5 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.58 for Falkirk.
How the model reaches 56% for Heart of Midlothian to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Heart of Midlothian to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Heart of Midlothian's ratings take away 15 points and Falkirk's ratings add 27 points, which lands on the published 56%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Heart of Midlothian's ratings29%−15
- Falkirk's ratings56%+27
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Heart of Midlothian at home · Falkirk away
League matches only, Premiership, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premiership matches this season: Heart of Midlothian 9, Falkirk 10.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Heart of Midlothian
- at Dundee21 Nov · Premiershipwin 40%
Falkirk
- vs St Johnstone21 Nov · Premiershipwin 48%
- at Rangers28 Nov · Premiershipwin 15%
- vs Motherwell2 Dec · Premiershipwin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.