Hangzhou Greentown
vs
Henan Jianye
Super League prediction
Our model says: Hangzhou Greentown 2–1 Henan Jianye
The model makes it 48% Hangzhou Greentown, 23% draw, 29% Henan Jianye — fair odds of 2.08, 4.35 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Hangzhou Greentown 2.22, Henan Jianye 1.60.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Hangzhou Greentown's rating is built from 59 Chinese Super League matches and Henan Jianye's from 59, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 712 matches.
Key facts
- Hangzhou Greentown are 10th on 34 points from 29 games; Henan Jianye are 14th on 28 points from 29 games — Super League.
- Hangzhou Greentown have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-2 win away to Shenyang Urban.
- Henan Jianye have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 3-4 defeat at home to Beijing Guoan.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 30 May 2026, ended Henan Jianye 0–2 Hangzhou Greentown.
More Chinese Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hangzhou Greentown at 48% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye
Hangzhou Greentown
Super League
- W4-2away to Shenyang Urban24 October 2026
- L0-5away to Shandong Luneng17 October 2026
- L2-4SHANGHAI SIPG9 October 2026
- W4-1Wuhan Three Towns18 September 2026
- L1-2away to Tianjin Teda6 September 2026
Henan Jianye
Super League
- L3-4Beijing Guoan24 October 2026
- L0-1Tianjin Teda16 October 2026
- D2-2away to Sichuan Jiuniu9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Wuhan Three Towns12 September 2026
- D0-0Chengdu Better City6 September 2026
What these results say
- Hangzhou Greentown conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Hangzhou Greentown had three goals or more.
- Hangzhou Greentown scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Henan Jianye did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Henan Jianye conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Hangzhou Greentown | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | 51 | 54 | -3 | 34 |
| 14 | Henan Jianye | 29 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye
- 30 May 2026Henan Jianye 0–2 Hangzhou GreentownSuper League
- 25 October 2025Henan Jianye 2–2 Hangzhou GreentownSuper League
- 22 June 2025Henan Jianye 3–2 Hangzhou GreentownFA Cup
- 16 May 2025Hangzhou Greentown 2–2 Henan JianyeSuper League
- 21 July 2024Henan Jianye 2–1 Hangzhou GreentownSuper League
- 30 April 2024Hangzhou Greentown 4–1 Henan JianyeSuper League
Leading scorers: Hangzhou Greentown and Henan Jianye
Hangzhou Greentown
GoalsAssists
- A. Mitriță1213
- Wang Yudong96
Henan Jianye
GoalsAssists
- Gustavo156
- Bruno Nazário106
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Hangzhou Greentown carry a model rating of 6.27 against 6.23 for Henan Jianye. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.22 goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.60 for Henan Jianye. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hangzhou Greentown rate 0.66 in attack and 2.16 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Henan Jianye rate 0.51 and 1.78.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hangzhou Greentown the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.22 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown against 1.60 for Henan Jianye. Hangzhou Greentown's attack/defence rating is 0.66/2.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.78 for Henan Jianye.
How the model reaches 48% for Hangzhou Greentown to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Hangzhou Greentown to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Hangzhou Greentown's ratings take away 30 points and Henan Jianye's ratings add 33 points, which lands on the published 48%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage45%+8
- Hangzhou Greentown's ratings15%−30
- Henan Jianye's ratings48%+33
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Hangzhou Greentown at home · Henan Jianye away
League matches only, Super League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League matches this season: Hangzhou Greentown 29, Henan Jianye 29.
Hangzhou Greentown score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); Henan Jianye have let in 8 there.
Henan Jianye score most often in the 16–30 minute window (10 goals); Hangzhou Greentown have let in 9 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.