Yverdon Sport
vs
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Challenge League prediction
Our model says: Yverdon Sport 1–0 Neuchatel Xamax FC
The model makes it 54% Yverdon Sport, 25% draw, 21% Neuchatel Xamax FC — fair odds of 1.85, 4.00 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Yverdon Sport 1.86, Neuchatel Xamax FC 0.95.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,566 settled matches.
Edge to Yverdon Sport: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Yverdon Sport's rating is built from 46 Challenge League matches and Neuchatel Xamax FC's from 47, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Yverdon Sport are 3rd on 19 points from 10 games; Neuchatel Xamax FC are 4th on 16 points from 11 games — Challenge League.
- Yverdon Sport have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Étoile Carouge.
- Neuchatel Xamax FC have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Stade Lausanne-Ouchy.
- Last 6 meetings: Yverdon Sport 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 1 September 2026, ended Neuchatel Xamax FC 1–2 Yverdon Sport.
More Challenge League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Yverdon Sport vs Neuchatel Xamax FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Yverdon Sport at 54% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 1,179 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Yverdon Sport vs Neuchatel Xamax FC
Yverdon Sport
Challenge League
- W2-0away to Étoile Carouge9 October 2026
- D0-0Stade Lausanne-Ouchy20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Rapperswil11 September 2026
- W4-1Stade Nyonnais6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Neuchatel Xamax FC1 September 2026
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Challenge League
- D0-0away to Stade Lausanne-Ouchy23 October 2026
- W3-0FC Winterthur9 October 2026
- L0-3Rapperswil18 September 2026
- W3-1away to Stade Nyonnais11 September 2026
- L0-4away to FC Winterthur4 September 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Neuchatel Xamax FC had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Yverdon Sport | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 19 |
| 4 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Yverdon Sport vs Neuchatel Xamax FC
- 1 September 2026Neuchatel Xamax FC 1–2 Yverdon SportChallenge League
- 22 April 2026Yverdon Sport 2–2 Neuchatel Xamax FCChallenge League
- 3 February 2026Neuchatel Xamax FC 1–2 Yverdon SportSchweizer Cup
- 25 January 2026Neuchatel Xamax FC 1–2 Yverdon SportChallenge League
- 7 November 2025Neuchatel Xamax FC 2–2 Yverdon SportChallenge League
- 31 August 2025Yverdon Sport 3–1 Neuchatel Xamax FCChallenge League
The two sides
Yverdon Sport carry a model rating of 6.27 against 6.09 for Neuchatel Xamax FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.86 goals for Yverdon Sport and 0.95 for Neuchatel Xamax FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Yverdon Sport rate 0.54 in attack and 1.72 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Neuchatel Xamax FC rate 0.46 and 2.12.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Yverdon Sport a 12.2% chance of the title and Neuchatel Xamax FC 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Yverdon Sport the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Yverdon Sport against 0.95 for Neuchatel Xamax FC. Yverdon Sport's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.72 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/2.12 for Neuchatel Xamax FC.
How the model reaches 54% for Yverdon Sport to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Yverdon Sport to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Yverdon Sport's ratings take away 27 points and Neuchatel Xamax FC's ratings add 37 points, which lands on the published 54%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Yverdon Sport's ratings17%−27
- Neuchatel Xamax FC's ratings54%+37
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Yverdon Sport at home · Neuchatel Xamax FC away
League matches only, Challenge League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Challenge League matches this season: Yverdon Sport 10, Neuchatel Xamax FC 11.
Yverdon Sport score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Neuchatel Xamax FC have let in 1 there.
Neuchatel Xamax FC score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Yverdon Sport have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Yverdon Sport
- vs FC Winterthur20 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 42%
- at FC WIL 190028 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 43%
- at FC Aarau5 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 37%
Neuchatel Xamax FC
- vs Étoile Carouge20 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 47%
- vs Stade Nyonnais28 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 63%
- at Rapperswil6 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 31%
- vs FC WIL 190013 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 49%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.