Regular Season - 14 · 22 November 2026, 15:30 UTC

FC Saarbrücken vs SV Wehen 3. Liga prediction

Ludwigspark Stadion

Our model says: FC Saarbrücken 2–1 SV Wehen

The model makes it 39% FC Saarbrücken, 26% draw, 35% SV Wehen — fair odds of 2.56, 3.85 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: FC Saarbrücken 1.65, SV Wehen 1.54.

Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. FC Saarbrücken's rating is built from 51 3. Liga matches and SV Wehen's from 51, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • FC Saarbrücken are 6th on 20 points from 13 games; SV Wehen are 4th on 21 points from 13 games — 3. Liga.
  • FC Saarbrücken have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-5 defeat away to FC Viktoria Köln.
  • SV Wehen are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 3-0 win at home to Havelse.
  • Last 6 meetings: FC Saarbrücken 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 4 March 2026, ended FC Saarbrücken 2–0 SV Wehen.

More 3. Liga predictions

All 3. Liga predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: FC Saarbrücken vs SV Wehen

64%
Both teams to score
62%
Over 2.5 goals
38%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

FC Saarbrücken win Draw SV Wehen win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 2–19%
  3. 1–28%
  4. 2–27%
  5. 1–06%
  6. 0–16%
  7. 2–06%

Scores read FC Saarbrücken first; the other scorelines share the remaining 48%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

FC Saarbrücken at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into FC Saarbrücken vs SV Wehen

FC Saarbrücken

3. Liga

  • L3-5away to FC Viktoria Köln6 November 2026
  • W2-1Waldhof Mannheim1 November 2026
  • L2-3away to Havelse25 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Fortuna Düsseldorf17 October 2026
  • L2-4MSV Duisburg13 October 2026

SV Wehen

3. Liga

  • W3-0Havelse7 November 2026
  • W4-1away to Verl31 October 2026
  • W7-1SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach24 October 2026
  • D0-0away to SSV Jahn Regensburg17 October 2026
  • W3-0Alemannia Aachen14 October 2026

What these results say

  • FC Saarbrücken scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • FC Saarbrücken conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for FC Saarbrücken had three goals or more.
  • SV Wehen went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • SV Wehen won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • SV Wehen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

3. Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6FC Saarbrücken136253126+520
4SV Wehen136342617+921

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

FC Saarbrücken

Chance to finish in the top three · 8% today

Win 11%
Draw 7%
Defeat 5%

SV Wehen

Chance to finish in the top three · 25% today

Win 30%
Draw 24%
Defeat 20%

From our 3. Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: FC Saarbrücken vs SV Wehen

  • 4 March 2026FC Saarbrücken 2–0 SV Wehen3. Liga
  • 27 September 2025SV Wehen 1–1 FC Saarbrücken3. Liga
  • 11 April 2025SV Wehen 1–1 FC Saarbrücken3. Liga
  • 9 November 2024FC Saarbrücken 3–1 SV Wehen3. Liga
  • 12 March 2023SV Wehen 0–2 FC Saarbrücken3. Liga
  • 5 September 2022FC Saarbrücken 2–2 SV Wehen3. Liga

Leading scorers: FC Saarbrücken and SV Wehen

FC Saarbrücken

GoalsAssists

  • K. Brünker51
  • F. Pick34

SV Wehen

GoalsAssists

  • R. Massimo33
  • R. Kalem32

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour SV Wehen (fourth, with FC Saarbrücken sixth), while our numbers lean to FC Saarbrücken. FC Saarbrücken rate 0.63 in attack and 2.10 in defence, SV Wehen 0.61 and 1.61 (lower is better in defence), so FC Saarbrücken have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 1-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Saarbrücken a 1% chance of the title and SV Wehen 4.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

FC Saarbrücken SV Wehen
0.63 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.61
2.1 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.61
1.65 Model expected goals (this match) 1.54

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives FC Saarbrücken the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.65 expected goals for FC Saarbrücken against 1.54 for SV Wehen. FC Saarbrücken's attack/defence rating is 0.63/2.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.61 for SV Wehen.

FC Saarbrücken carry a model rating of 6.26 against 6.36 for SV Wehen. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 39% for FC Saarbrücken to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FC Saarbrücken to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, FC Saarbrücken's ratings take away 3 points and SV Wehen's ratings take away 4 points, which lands on the published 39%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level46%+2
  4. FC Saarbrücken's ratings43%−3
  5. SV Wehen's ratings39%−4

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

FC SaarbrückenSV Wehen
13Matches13
6W 2D 5LRecord6W 3D 4L
31 2.4 per gameGoals scored26 2.0 per game
26 2.0 per gameGoals conceded17 1.3 per game
2 of 13Clean sheets5 of 13
2 of 13Failed to score4 of 13
–Penalties scored2 of 3
32 2.5 per gameYellow cards31 2.4 per game
1Red cards2
4-4-2 10×Usual shape4-4-2 3×

FC Saarbrücken at home · SV Wehen away

6Played6
3W 0D 3LRecord3W 2D 1L
13–13Goals for – against11–8
0 of 6Clean sheets2 of 6

League matches only, 3. Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All 3. Liga matches this season: FC Saarbrücken 13, SV Wehen 13.

FC Saarbrücken scored 443549
SV Wehen conceded 063205

FC Saarbrücken score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); SV Wehen have let in 5 there.

SV Wehen scored 235545
FC Saarbrücken conceded 366533

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

FC Saarbrücken

  • vs Alemannia Aachen28 Nov · 3. Ligawin 41%
  • at Hoffenheim II5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 32%
  • vs Würzburger Kickers12 Dec · 3. Ligawin 56%
  • at Stuttgart II19 Dec · 3. Ligawin 32%
  • vs Verl16 Jan · 3. Ligawin 47%

SV Wehen

  • vs SV Meppen29 Nov · 3. Ligawin 49%
  • at Fortuna Düsseldorf5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 36%
  • vs Stuttgart II12 Dec · 3. Ligawin 55%
  • at Hoffenheim II19 Dec · 3. Ligawin 37%
  • vs FC Viktoria Köln16 Jan · 3. Ligawin 42%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.