Regular Season - 14 · 21 November 2026, 13:00 UTC

SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Würzburger Kickers 3. Liga prediction

Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regensburg

Our model says: SSV Jahn Regensburg 2–1 Würzburger Kickers

The model makes it 54% SSV Jahn Regensburg, 25% draw, 21% Würzburger Kickers — fair odds of 1.85, 4.00 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.91, Würzburger Kickers 1.00.

Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

Edge to SSV Jahn Regensburg: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. SSV Jahn Regensburg's rating is built from 51 3. Liga matches and Würzburger Kickers's from 13, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • SSV Jahn Regensburg are 16th on 13 points from 13 games; Würzburger Kickers are 15th on 14 points from 13 games — 3. Liga.
  • SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to SV Meppen.
  • Würzburger Kickers have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Hoffenheim II.
  • Last 2 meetings: Würzburger Kickers 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 21 March 2021, ended FC Wurzburger Kickers 1–1 Jahn Regensburg.

More 3. Liga predictions

All 3. Liga predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Würzburger Kickers

55%
Both teams to score
56%
Over 2.5 goals
44%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

SSV Jahn Regensburg win Draw Würzburger Kickers win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 2–110%
  3. 2–010%
  4. 1–010%
  5. 3–06%
  6. 3–16%
  7. 0–06%

Scores read SSV Jahn Regensburg first; the other scorelines share the remaining 40%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

SSV Jahn Regensburg at 54%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Würzburger Kickers

SSV Jahn Regensburg

3. Liga

  • L1-2away to SV Meppen8 November 2026
  • W2-1Hansa Rostock31 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Rot-Weiß Essen23 October 2026
  • D0-0SV Wehen17 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Verl14 October 2026

Würzburger Kickers

3. Liga

  • L0-1Hoffenheim II8 November 2026
  • W2-1away to Fortuna Köln31 October 2026
  • L0-4away to SV Meppen24 October 2026
  • W2-0Waldhof Mannheim17 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Havelse13 October 2026

What these results say

  • SSV Jahn Regensburg failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • SSV Jahn Regensburg conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Würzburger Kickers conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

3. Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16SSV Jahn Regensburg133462323013
15Würzburger Kickers134271725-814

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

SSV Jahn Regensburg

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 10% today

Win 7%
Draw 11%
Defeat 14%

Würzburger Kickers

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 46% today

Win 37%
Draw 44%
Defeat 50%

From our 3. Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Würzburger Kickers

  • 21 March 2021FC Wurzburger Kickers 1–1 Jahn Regensburg2. Bundesliga
  • 28 November 2020Jahn Regensburg 2–1 FC Wurzburger Kickers2. Bundesliga

Leading scorers: SSV Jahn Regensburg and Würzburger Kickers

SSV Jahn Regensburg

GoalsAssists

  • L. Hermes62
  • N. Boujellab34

Würzburger Kickers

GoalsAssists

  • T. Bonga41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Würzburger Kickers (15th, with SSV Jahn Regensburg 16th), while our numbers lean to SSV Jahn Regensburg. SSV Jahn Regensburg rate 0.55 in attack and 1.81 in defence, Würzburger Kickers 0.46 and 2.14 (lower is better in defence), so SSV Jahn Regensburg have been the better side at both ends on recent expected goals, which the 1-point gap in the table does not yet show.

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives SSV Jahn Regensburg a 0.2% chance of the title and Würzburger Kickers 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

SSV Jahn Regensburg Würzburger Kickers
0.55 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.46
1.81 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 2.14
1.91 Model expected goals (this match) 1.00

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives SSV Jahn Regensburg the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.91 expected goals for SSV Jahn Regensburg against 1.00 for Würzburger Kickers. SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.81 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/2.14 for Würzburger Kickers.

SSV Jahn Regensburg carry a model rating of 6.25 against 6.08 for Würzburger Kickers.

How the model reaches 54% for SSV Jahn Regensburg to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for SSV Jahn Regensburg to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, SSV Jahn Regensburg's ratings add 5 points and Würzburger Kickers's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 54%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. SSV Jahn Regensburg's ratings49%+5
  4. Würzburger Kickers's ratings54%+5

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

SSV Jahn RegensburgWürzburger Kickers
13Matches13
3W 4D 6LRecord4W 2D 7L
23 1.8 per gameGoals scored17 1.3 per game
23 1.8 per gameGoals conceded25 1.9 per game
2 of 13Clean sheets3 of 13
3 of 13Failed to score4 of 13
2 of 3Penalties scored3 of 3
38 2.9 per gameYellow cards29 2.2 per game
1Red cards1
3-4-3 3×Usual shape4-4-2 6×

SSV Jahn Regensburg at home · Würzburger Kickers away

6Played7
2W 1D 3LRecord1W 2D 4L
9–6Goals for – against9–20
2 of 6Clean sheets0 of 7

League matches only, 3. Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All 3. Liga matches this season: SSV Jahn Regensburg 13, Würzburger Kickers 13.

SSV Jahn Regensburg scored 137831
Würzburger Kickers conceded 275235

SSV Jahn Regensburg score most often in the 46–60 minute window (8 goals); Würzburger Kickers have let in 2 there.

Würzburger Kickers scored 045234
SSV Jahn Regensburg conceded 442175

Würzburger Kickers score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); SSV Jahn Regensburg have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

SSV Jahn Regensburg

  • at FC Ingolstadt 0429 Nov · 3. Ligawin 28%
  • vs Preußen Münster5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 51%
  • at Waldhof Mannheim12 Dec · 3. Ligawin 32%
  • vs Fortuna Köln19 Dec · 3. Ligawin 51%
  • at SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach16 Jan · 3. Ligawin 46%

Würzburger Kickers

  • vs Fortuna Düsseldorf28 Nov · 3. Ligawin 37%
  • vs FC Viktoria Köln5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 27%
  • at FC Saarbrücken12 Dec · 3. Ligawin 21%
  • vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach19 Dec · 3. Ligawin 53%
  • at Preußen Münster16 Jan · 3. Ligawin 26%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.