Regular Season - 14 · 21 November 2026, 15:30 UTC

Alemannia Aachen vs Waldhof Mannheim 3. Liga prediction

New Tivoli, Aachen

Our model says: Alemannia Aachen 2–1 Waldhof Mannheim

The model makes it 53% Alemannia Aachen, 25% draw, 22% Waldhof Mannheim — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Alemannia Aachen 1.94, Waldhof Mannheim 1.08.

Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

Edge to Alemannia Aachen: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Alemannia Aachen's rating is built from 51 3. Liga matches and Waldhof Mannheim's from 51, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Alemannia Aachen are 7th on 20 points from 13 games; Waldhof Mannheim are 8th on 19 points from 13 games — 3. Liga.
  • Alemannia Aachen have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Rot-Weiß Essen.
  • Waldhof Mannheim have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Fortuna Köln.
  • Last 4 meetings: Waldhof Mannheim 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 1 March 2026, ended Waldhof Mannheim 2–1 Alemannia Aachen.

More 3. Liga predictions

All 3. Liga predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Alemannia Aachen vs Waldhof Mannheim

57%
Both teams to score
58%
Over 2.5 goals
42%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Alemannia Aachen win Draw Waldhof Mannheim win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 2–110%
  3. 2–09%
  4. 1–09%
  5. 3–16%
  6. 3–06%
  7. 1–26%

Scores read Alemannia Aachen first; the other scorelines share the remaining 43%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Alemannia Aachen at 53%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Alemannia Aachen vs Waldhof Mannheim

Alemannia Aachen

3. Liga

  • L0-1away to Rot-Weiß Essen7 November 2026
  • W2-1Preußen Münster1 November 2026
  • W2-1away to Stuttgart II24 October 2026
  • W2-0Hansa Rostock17 October 2026
  • L0-3away to SV Wehen14 October 2026

Waldhof Mannheim

3. Liga

  • W2-1Fortuna Köln7 November 2026
  • L1-2away to FC Saarbrücken1 November 2026
  • W4-1Hoffenheim II25 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Würzburger Kickers17 October 2026
  • L0-3FC Ingolstadt 0414 October 2026

What these results say

  • Alemannia Aachen conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Waldhof Mannheim conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Waldhof Mannheim had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

3. Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Alemannia Aachen136251919020
8Waldhof Mannheim136162320+319

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Alemannia Aachen

Chance to finish in the top three · 20% today

Win 22%
Draw 16%
Defeat 14%

Waldhof Mannheim

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 9% today

Win 5%
Draw 8%
Defeat 10%

From our 3. Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Alemannia Aachen vs Waldhof Mannheim

  • 1 March 2026Waldhof Mannheim 2–1 Alemannia Aachen3. Liga
  • 20 September 2025Alemannia Aachen 3–2 Waldhof Mannheim3. Liga
  • 2 March 2025Waldhof Mannheim 2–1 Alemannia Aachen3. Liga
  • 25 September 2024Alemannia Aachen 0–0 Waldhof Mannheim3. Liga

Leading scorers: Alemannia Aachen and Waldhof Mannheim

Alemannia Aachen

No player in 3. Liga's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.

Waldhof Mannheim

GoalsAssists

  • J. Ulbricht42
  • T. Boyd41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Alemannia Aachen a 3.3% chance of the title and Waldhof Mannheim 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Alemannia Aachen Waldhof Mannheim
0.59 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.54
1.66 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 2.02
1.94 Model expected goals (this match) 1.08

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Alemannia Aachen the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Alemannia Aachen against 1.08 for Waldhof Mannheim. Alemannia Aachen's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.66 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/2.02 for Waldhof Mannheim.

Alemannia Aachen carry a model rating of 6.33 against 6.19 for Waldhof Mannheim. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 53% for Alemannia Aachen to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Alemannia Aachen to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Alemannia Aachen's ratings add 3 points and Waldhof Mannheim's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 53%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level45%+1
  4. Alemannia Aachen's ratings48%+3
  5. Waldhof Mannheim's ratings53%+5

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Alemannia AachenWaldhof Mannheim
13Matches13
6W 2D 5LRecord6W 1D 6L
19 1.5 per gameGoals scored23 1.8 per game
19 1.5 per gameGoals conceded20 1.5 per game
3 of 13Clean sheets2 of 13
4 of 13Failed to score3 of 13
1 of 1Penalties scored1 of 1
34 2.6 per gameYellow cards32 2.5 per game
3Red cards1
3-4-2-1 5×Usual shape4-3-3 7×

Alemannia Aachen at home · Waldhof Mannheim away

7Played6
4W 1D 2LRecord2W 1D 3L
13–12Goals for – against12–11
2 of 7Clean sheets1 of 6

League matches only, 3. Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All 3. Liga matches this season: Alemannia Aachen 13, Waldhof Mannheim 13.

Alemannia Aachen scored 931303
Waldhof Mannheim conceded 224533

Alemannia Aachen score most often in the 0–15 minute window (9 goals); Waldhof Mannheim have let in 2 there.

Waldhof Mannheim scored 380317
Alemannia Aachen conceded 426502

Waldhof Mannheim score most often in the 16–30 minute window (8 goals); Alemannia Aachen have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Alemannia Aachen

  • at FC Saarbrücken28 Nov · 3. Ligawin 33%
  • vs Havelse5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 63%
  • at SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach12 Dec · 3. Ligawin 50%
  • at MSV Duisburg19 Dec · 3. Ligawin 25%
  • vs Hoffenheim II16 Jan · 3. Ligawin 52%

Waldhof Mannheim

  • vs Stuttgart II28 Nov · 3. Ligawin 45%
  • at MSV Duisburg5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 19%
  • vs SSV Jahn Regensburg12 Dec · 3. Ligawin 41%
  • at FC Viktoria Köln19 Dec · 3. Ligawin 19%
  • vs SV Meppen16 Jan · 3. Ligawin 40%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.