Regular Season - 14 · 22 November 2026, 12:30 UTC

Stuttgart II vs FC Ingolstadt 04 3. Liga prediction

WIRmachenDRUCK Arena, Aspach

Our model says: Stuttgart II 2–1 FC Ingolstadt 04

The model makes it 41% Stuttgart II, 27% draw, 32% FC Ingolstadt 04 — fair odds of 2.44, 3.70 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Stuttgart II 1.59, FC Ingolstadt 04 1.36.

Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Stuttgart II's rating is built from 51 3. Liga matches and FC Ingolstadt 04's from 51, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Stuttgart II are 12th on 18 points from 13 games; FC Ingolstadt 04 are 5th on 21 points from 13 games — 3. Liga.
  • Stuttgart II have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Verl.
  • FC Ingolstadt 04 are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 3-2 win at home to Fortuna Düsseldorf.
  • Last 4 meetings: Stuttgart II 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 24 January 2026, ended FC Ingolstadt 04 2–1 Stuttgart II.

More 3. Liga predictions

All 3. Liga predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Stuttgart II vs FC Ingolstadt 04

60%
Both teams to score
57%
Over 2.5 goals
43%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Stuttgart II win Draw FC Ingolstadt 04 win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 2–19%
  3. 1–08%
  4. 1–28%
  5. 2–07%
  6. 0–17%
  7. 2–26%

Scores read Stuttgart II first; the other scorelines share the remaining 44%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Stuttgart II at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Stuttgart II vs FC Ingolstadt 04

Stuttgart II

3. Liga

  • W1-0Verl8 November 2026
  • D3-3away to MSV Duisburg31 October 2026
  • L1-2Alemannia Aachen24 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Fortuna Köln16 October 2026
  • W3-2Hoffenheim II13 October 2026

FC Ingolstadt 04

3. Liga

  • W3-2Fortuna Düsseldorf7 November 2026
  • D1-1away to Havelse31 October 2026
  • W2-1MSV Duisburg24 October 2026
  • W1-0Rot-Weiß Essen17 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Waldhof Mannheim14 October 2026

What these results say

  • Stuttgart II scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • FC Ingolstadt 04 went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • FC Ingolstadt 04 scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • FC Ingolstadt 04 won 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

3. Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Stuttgart II135352223-118
5FC Ingolstadt 04136341919021

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Stuttgart II

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 8% today

Win 4%
Draw 9%
Defeat 11%

FC Ingolstadt 04

Chance to finish in the top three · 11% today

Win 14%
Draw 11%
Defeat 9%

From our 3. Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Stuttgart II vs FC Ingolstadt 04

  • 24 January 2026FC Ingolstadt 04 2–1 Stuttgart II3. Liga
  • 10 August 2025Stuttgart II 2–1 FC Ingolstadt 043. Liga
  • 15 February 2025FC Ingolstadt 04 1–1 Stuttgart II3. Liga
  • 14 September 2024Stuttgart II 3–2 FC Ingolstadt 043. Liga

Leading scorers: Stuttgart II and FC Ingolstadt 04

Stuttgart II

GoalsAssists

  • T. van der Leij40

FC Ingolstadt 04

GoalsAssists

  • O. Ugondu40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FC Ingolstadt 04 (5th, with Stuttgart II 12th), while our numbers lean to Stuttgart II. Stuttgart II rate 0.57 in attack and 2.09 in defence, FC Ingolstadt 04 0.54 and 1.72 (lower is better in defence), so Stuttgart II have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 3-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Stuttgart II a 0.4% chance of the title and FC Ingolstadt 04 1.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Stuttgart II FC Ingolstadt 04
0.57 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.54
2.09 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.72
1.59 Model expected goals (this match) 1.36

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Stuttgart II the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Stuttgart II against 1.36 for FC Ingolstadt 04. Stuttgart II's attack/defence rating is 0.57/2.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.72 for FC Ingolstadt 04.

Stuttgart II carry a model rating of 6.2 against 6.27 for FC Ingolstadt 04. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 41% for Stuttgart II to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Stuttgart II to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Stuttgart II's ratings take away 2 points and FC Ingolstadt 04's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 41%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level45%+1
  4. Stuttgart II's ratings43%−2
  5. FC Ingolstadt 04's ratings41%−2

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Stuttgart IIFC Ingolstadt 04
13Matches13
5W 3D 5LRecord6W 3D 4L
22 1.7 per gameGoals scored19 1.5 per game
23 1.8 per gameGoals conceded19 1.5 per game
2 of 13Clean sheets4 of 13
1 of 13Failed to score2 of 13
2 of 2Penalties scored–
36 2.8 per gameYellow cards26 2.0 per game
1Red cards3
4-2-3-1 5×Usual shape3-4-3 4×

Stuttgart II at home · FC Ingolstadt 04 away

6Played6
2W 1D 3LRecord3W 2D 1L
10–12Goals for – against8–5
1 of 6Clean sheets3 of 6

League matches only, 3. Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All 3. Liga matches this season: Stuttgart II 13, FC Ingolstadt 04 13.

Stuttgart II scored 326372
FC Ingolstadt 04 conceded 632325

Stuttgart II score most often in the 61–75 minute window (7 goals); FC Ingolstadt 04 have let in 2 there.

FC Ingolstadt 04 scored 243323
Stuttgart II conceded 732531

FC Ingolstadt 04 score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Stuttgart II have let in 3 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Stuttgart II

  • at Waldhof Mannheim28 Nov · 3. Ligawin 30%
  • vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 61%
  • at SV Wehen12 Dec · 3. Ligawin 21%
  • vs FC Saarbrücken19 Dec · 3. Ligawin 44%
  • at Rot-Weiß Essen16 Jan · 3. Ligawin 22%

FC Ingolstadt 04

  • vs SSV Jahn Regensburg29 Nov · 3. Ligawin 45%
  • at Verl5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 31%
  • vs Fortuna Köln12 Dec · 3. Ligawin 51%
  • at SV Meppen19 Dec · 3. Ligawin 29%
  • vs Hansa Rostock16 Jan · 3. Ligawin 42%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.