Fortuna Köln
vs
SV Meppen
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: Fortuna Köln 0–0 SV Meppen
The model makes it 31% Fortuna Köln, 35% draw, 34% SV Meppen — fair odds of 3.23, 2.86 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 0-0 (18%).
Expected goals: Fortuna Köln 0.83, SV Meppen 0.91.
Both teams to score: 34%. Over 2.5 goals: 25%, under 2.5: 75%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
A tight game: Fortuna Köln and SV Meppen are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Fortuna Köln's rating is built from 13 3. Liga matches and SV Meppen's from 13, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Fortuna Köln are 19th on 10 points from 13 games; SV Meppen are 11th on 18 points from 13 games — 3. Liga.
- Fortuna Köln have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Waldhof Mannheim.
- SV Meppen are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to SSV Jahn Regensburg.
- Last 5 meetings: SV Meppen 3 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 28 June 2023, ended SV Meppen 1–1 Fortuna Köln.
More 3. Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Fortuna Köln vs SV Meppen
Has the model earned this number?
the draw at 35%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Fortuna Köln vs SV Meppen
Fortuna Köln
3. Liga
- L1-2away to Waldhof Mannheim7 November 2026
- L1-2Würzburger Kickers31 October 2026
- L0-1away to Preußen Münster25 October 2026
- L0-1Stuttgart II16 October 2026
- L0-2away to Rot-Weiß Essen13 October 2026
SV Meppen
3. Liga
- W2-1SSV Jahn Regensburg8 November 2026
- D0-0away to Fortuna Düsseldorf30 October 2026
- W4-0Würzburger Kickers24 October 2026
- D1-1Havelse18 October 2026
- W2-0away to Hansa Rostock13 October 2026
What these results say
- Fortuna Köln did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Fortuna Köln conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- SV Meppen went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- SV Meppen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Fortuna Köln | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 10 |
| 11 | SV Meppen | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Fortuna Köln
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 76% today
SV Meppen
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 6% today
From our 3. Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Fortuna Köln vs SV Meppen
- 28 June 2023SV Meppen 1–1 Fortuna KölnFriendlies Clubs
- 6 May 2019Fortuna Köln 1–1 SV Meppen3. Liga
- 2 December 2018SV Meppen 3–0 Fortuna Köln3. Liga
- 31 March 2018Fortuna Köln 0–2 SV Meppen3. Liga
- 21 October 2017SV Meppen 1–0 Fortuna Köln3. Liga
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Fortuna Köln a 0% chance of the title and SV Meppen 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives a draw the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Fortuna Köln against 0.91 for SV Meppen. Fortuna Köln's attack/defence rating is 0.32/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.59 for SV Meppen.
How the model reaches 35% for a draw
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 28% for a draw. Then home advantage takes away 1 point, the level of the two sides adds 7 points, Fortuna Köln's ratings add 2 points and SV Meppen's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 35%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground28%
- Home advantage27%−1
- Both sides at this match's level34%+7
- Fortuna Köln's ratings36%+2
- SV Meppen's ratings35%−1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Fortuna Köln at home · SV Meppen away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: Fortuna Köln 13, SV Meppen 13.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Fortuna Köln
- at FC Viktoria Köln29 Nov · 3. Ligawin 15%
- vs Hansa Rostock5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 29%
- at FC Ingolstadt 0412 Dec · 3. Ligawin 19%
- at SSV Jahn Regensburg19 Dec · 3. Ligawin 20%
- vs MSV Duisburg16 Jan · 3. Ligawin 25%
SV Meppen
- at SV Wehen29 Nov · 3. Ligawin 23%
- vs Rot-Weiß Essen5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 37%
- at Preußen Münster12 Dec · 3. Ligawin 33%
- vs FC Ingolstadt 0419 Dec · 3. Ligawin 41%
- at Waldhof Mannheim16 Jan · 3. Ligawin 31%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.