Regular Season - 14 · 21 November 2026, 13:00 UTC

Hoffenheim II vs Preußen Münster 3. Liga prediction

Dietmar-Hopp Stadion, Sinsheim

Our model says: Hoffenheim II 2–1 Preußen Münster

The model makes it 49% Hoffenheim II, 25% draw, 26% Preußen Münster — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Hoffenheim II 1.91, Preußen Münster 1.26.

Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Hoffenheim II's rating is built from 51 3. Liga matches and Preußen Münster's from 13, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Hoffenheim II are 9th on 19 points from 13 games; Preußen Münster are 14th on 15 points from 13 games — 3. Liga.
  • Hoffenheim II have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Würzburger Kickers.
  • Preußen Münster have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to MSV Duisburg.

More 3. Liga predictions

All 3. Liga predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Hoffenheim II vs Preußen Münster

62%
Both teams to score
61%
Over 2.5 goals
39%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Hoffenheim II win Draw Preußen Münster win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 2–110%
  3. 2–08%
  4. 1–08%
  5. 1–26%
  6. 3–16%
  7. 2–26%

Scores read Hoffenheim II first; the other scorelines share the remaining 45%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Hoffenheim II at 49%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Hoffenheim II vs Preußen Münster

Hoffenheim II

3. Liga

  • W1-0away to Würzburger Kickers8 November 2026
  • L0-1FC Viktoria Köln31 October 2026
  • L1-4away to Waldhof Mannheim25 October 2026
  • W2-1Verl18 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Stuttgart II13 October 2026

Preußen Münster

3. Liga

  • L1-2MSV Duisburg7 November 2026
  • L1-2away to Alemannia Aachen1 November 2026
  • W1-0Fortuna Köln25 October 2026
  • L2-3away to SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach17 October 2026
  • L1-2Fortuna Düsseldorf14 October 2026

What these results say

  • Hoffenheim II scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Hoffenheim II conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Preußen Münster scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Preußen Münster failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Preußen Münster conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

3. Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Hoffenheim II136162220+219
14Preußen Münster134362125-415

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Hoffenheim II

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 6% today

Win 4%
Draw 6%
Defeat 9%

Preußen Münster

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 30% today

Win 21%
Draw 30%
Defeat 34%

From our 3. Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Leading scorers: Hoffenheim II and Preußen Münster

Hoffenheim II

GoalsAssists

  • Y. B. Zor Muhammed83

Preußen Münster

GoalsAssists

  • F. Higl41
  • Montell Ndikom40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Hoffenheim II a 0.5% chance of the title and Preußen Münster 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Hoffenheim II v Preußen Münster has moved

First published on 7 Nov at 47% / 25% / 28% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 49% / 25% / 26%: the biggest move is Hoffenheim II's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Hoffenheim II win49%▲ +2
  2. Draw25%=
  3. Preußen Münster win26%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Hoffenheim II Preußen Münster
0.54 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.53
1.98 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 2.17
1.91 Model expected goals (this match) 1.26

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Hoffenheim II the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Hoffenheim II against 1.26 for Preußen Münster. Hoffenheim II's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.98 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/2.17 for Preußen Münster.

Hoffenheim II carry a model rating of 6.2 against 6.15 for Preußen Münster. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 49% for Hoffenheim II to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Hoffenheim II to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Hoffenheim II's ratings add 2 points and Preußen Münster's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 49%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level45%+1
  4. Hoffenheim II's ratings47%+2
  5. Preußen Münster's ratings49%+2

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Hoffenheim IIPreußen Münster
13Matches13
6W 1D 6LRecord4W 3D 6L
22 1.7 per gameGoals scored21 1.6 per game
20 1.5 per gameGoals conceded25 1.9 per game
3 of 13Clean sheets1 of 13
2 of 13Failed to score1 of 13
1 of 2Penalties scored1 of 1
35 2.7 per gameYellow cards30 2.3 per game
0Red cards1
4-2-3-1 6×Usual shape3-4-2-1 5×

Hoffenheim II at home · Preußen Münster away

6Played6
3W 1D 2LRecord2W 0D 4L
12–8Goals for – against9–13
1 of 6Clean sheets0 of 6

League matches only, 3. Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All 3. Liga matches this season: Hoffenheim II 13, Preußen Münster 13.

Hoffenheim II scored 453232
Preußen Münster conceded 635146

Hoffenheim II score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Preußen Münster have let in 3 there.

Preußen Münster scored 261327
Hoffenheim II conceded 345334

Preußen Münster score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Hoffenheim II have let in 4 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Hoffenheim II

  • at Rot-Weiß Essen28 Nov · 3. Ligawin 22%
  • vs FC Saarbrücken5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 43%
  • at Havelse12 Dec · 3. Ligawin 38%
  • vs SV Wehen19 Dec · 3. Ligawin 36%
  • at Alemannia Aachen16 Jan · 3. Ligawin 23%

Preußen Münster

  • vs Verl28 Nov · 3. Ligawin 41%
  • at SSV Jahn Regensburg5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 24%
  • vs SV Meppen12 Dec · 3. Ligawin 38%
  • at Hansa Rostock19 Dec · 3. Ligawin 21%
  • vs Würzburger Kickers16 Jan · 3. Ligawin 49%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.