Regular Season - 14 · 21 November 2026, 13:00 UTC

Verl vs Rot-Weiß Essen 3. Liga prediction

Sportclub Arena, Verl

Our model says: Verl 2–1 Rot-Weiß Essen

The model makes it 37% Verl, 28% draw, 35% Rot-Weiß Essen — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Verl 1.40, Rot-Weiß Essen 1.34.

Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.

A tight game: Verl and Rot-Weiß Essen are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Verl's rating is built from 51 3. Liga matches and Rot-Weiß Essen's from 51, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Verl are 17th on 12 points from 13 games; Rot-Weiß Essen are 3rd on 27 points from 13 games — 3. Liga.
  • Verl have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Stuttgart II.
  • Rot-Weiß Essen are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Alemannia Aachen.
  • Last 6 meetings: Verl 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 9 May 2026, ended Rot-Weiß Essen 1–0 Verl.

More 3. Liga predictions

All 3. Liga predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Verl vs Rot-Weiß Essen

56%
Both teams to score
52%
Over 2.5 goals
48%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Verl win Draw Rot-Weiß Essen win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 2–18%
  3. 1–08%
  4. 1–28%
  5. 0–18%
  6. 0–07%
  7. 2–06%

Scores read Verl first; the other scorelines share the remaining 41%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Verl at 37%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Verl vs Rot-Weiß Essen

Verl

3. Liga

  • L0-1away to Stuttgart II8 November 2026
  • L1-4SV Wehen31 October 2026
  • L1-3away to FC Viktoria Köln24 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Hoffenheim II18 October 2026
  • D2-2SSV Jahn Regensburg14 October 2026

Rot-Weiß Essen

3. Liga

  • W1-0Alemannia Aachen7 November 2026
  • W1-0away to SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach1 November 2026
  • W1-0SSV Jahn Regensburg23 October 2026
  • L0-1away to FC Ingolstadt 0417 October 2026
  • W2-0Fortuna Köln13 October 2026

What these results say

  • Verl did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Verl conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Verl scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Rot-Weiß Essen had two goals or fewer.
  • Rot-Weiß Essen won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Rot-Weiß Essen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

3. Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Verl133371727-1012
3Rot-Weiß Essen138322113+827

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Verl

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 22% today

Win 16%
Draw 24%
Defeat 25%

Rot-Weiß Essen

Chance to finish in the top three · 40% today

Win 48%
Draw 38%
Defeat 35%

From our 3. Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Verl vs Rot-Weiß Essen

  • 9 May 2026Rot-Weiß Essen 1–0 Verl3. Liga
  • 13 December 2025Verl 0–0 Rot-Weiß Essen3. Liga
  • 28 March 2025Verl 3–0 Rot-Weiß Essen3. Liga
  • 23 October 2024Rot-Weiß Essen 1–3 Verl3. Liga
  • 10 March 2024Verl 1–1 Rot-Weiß Essen3. Liga
  • 7 October 2023Rot-Weiß Essen 0–5 Verl3. Liga

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Rot-Weiß Essen (3rd, with Verl 17th), while our numbers lean to Verl. Verl rate 0.55 in attack and 1.92 in defence, Rot-Weiß Essen 0.58 and 1.57 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Verl a 0% chance of the title and Rot-Weiß Essen 9.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Verl v Rot-Weiß Essen has moved

First published on 7 Nov at 39% / 27% / 34% (home / draw / away). After 3 updates it reads 37% / 28% / 35%: the biggest move is Verl's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Verl win37%▼ −2
  2. Draw28%▲ +1
  3. Rot-Weiß Essen win35%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Verl Rot-Weiß Essen
0.55 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.58
1.92 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.57
1.40 Model expected goals (this match) 1.34

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Verl the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Verl against 1.34 for Rot-Weiß Essen. Verl's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.57 for Rot-Weiß Essen.

Verl carry a model rating of 6.23 against 6.35 for Rot-Weiß Essen. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 37% for Verl to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Verl to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Verl's ratings take away 3 points and Rot-Weiß Essen's ratings take away 4 points, which lands on the published 37%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Verl's ratings41%−3
  4. Rot-Weiß Essen's ratings37%−4

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

VerlRot-Weiß Essen
13Matches13
3W 3D 7LRecord8W 3D 2L
17 1.3 per gameGoals scored21 1.6 per game
27 2.1 per gameGoals conceded13 1.0 per game
1 of 13Clean sheets7 of 13
1 of 13Failed to score2 of 13
–Penalties scored2 of 2
26 2.0 per gameYellow cards37 2.8 per game
1Red cards0
4-2-3-1 7×Usual shape4-2-3-1 10×

Verl at home · Rot-Weiß Essen away

6Played6
2W 1D 3LRecord2W 2D 2L
10–14Goals for – against8–10
0 of 6Clean sheets2 of 6

League matches only, 3. Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All 3. Liga matches this season: Verl 13, Rot-Weiß Essen 13.

Verl scored 243422
Rot-Weiß Essen conceded 012333
Rot-Weiß Essen scored 353137
Verl conceded 214576

Rot-Weiß Essen score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Verl have let in 6 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Verl

  • at Preußen Münster28 Nov · 3. Ligawin 33%
  • vs FC Ingolstadt 045 Dec · 3. Ligawin 42%
  • at Hansa Rostock12 Dec · 3. Ligawin 25%
  • vs Havelse19 Dec · 3. Ligawin 58%
  • at FC Saarbrücken16 Jan · 3. Ligawin 28%

Rot-Weiß Essen

  • vs Hoffenheim II28 Nov · 3. Ligawin 53%
  • at SV Meppen5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 33%
  • vs MSV Duisburg12 Dec · 3. Ligawin 41%
  • at Fortuna Düsseldorf19 Dec · 3. Ligawin 35%
  • vs Stuttgart II16 Jan · 3. Ligawin 53%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.