Erzurumspor FK
vs
Göztepe
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Erzurumspor FK 0–1 Göztepe
The model makes it 30% Erzurumspor FK, 28% draw, 42% Göztepe — fair odds of 3.33, 3.57 and 2.38.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Erzurumspor FK 1.19, Göztepe 1.51.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Edge to Göztepe: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Erzurumspor FK's rating is built from 11 Süper Lig matches and Göztepe's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 747 matches.
Key facts
- Erzurumspor FK are 12th on 14 points from 11 games; Göztepe are 10th on 15 points from 11 games — Süper Lig.
- Erzurumspor FK have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Rizespor.
- Göztepe have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Başakşehir.
- Last 6 meetings: Göztepe 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 9 January 2025, ended Erzurumspor FK 0–1 Göztepe.
More Süper Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Erzurumspor FK vs Göztepe
Has the model earned this number?
Göztepe at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Erzurumspor FK vs Göztepe
Erzurumspor FK
Süper Lig
- L1-2away to Rizespor8 November 2026
- L1-3Çorum FK31 October 2026
- W3-1away to Gaziantep FK24 October 2026
- W2-0Eyüpspor17 October 2026
- D0-0away to Alanyaspor10 October 2026
Göztepe
Süper Lig
- L1-2Başakşehir7 November 2026
- W2-1away to Fenerbahçe31 October 2026
- W2-0Çorum FK25 October 2026
- W2-1away to Kocaelispor18 October 2026
- W4-0away to Eyüpspor12 October 2026
What these results say
- Erzurumspor FK scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Göztepe scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Göztepe won 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Göztepe had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Erzurumspor FK | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 14 |
| 10 | Göztepe | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 19 | +3 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Erzurumspor FK
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 18% today
From our Süper Lig season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Erzurumspor FK vs Göztepe
- 9 January 2025Erzurumspor FK 0–1 GöztepeTürkiye Kupası
- 8 April 2024Göztepe 3–0 Erzurumspor FK1. Lig
- 12 November 2023Erzurumspor FK 3–2 Göztepe1. Lig
- 21 January 2023Erzurumspor FK 0–1 Göztepe1. Lig
- 21 August 2022Göztepe 1–1 Erzurumspor FK1. Lig
- 8 March 2021Göztepe 3–1 Erzurumspor FKSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Erzurumspor FK and Göztepe
Erzurumspor FK
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Göztepe
GoalsAssists
- Juan71
- André Henrique41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Göztepe the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Erzurumspor FK against 1.51 for Göztepe. Erzurumspor FK's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.91/1.19 for Göztepe.
How the model reaches 42% for Göztepe to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Göztepe to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Erzurumspor FK's ratings add 6 points and Göztepe's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage31%−5
- Both sides at this match's level30%−1
- Erzurumspor FK's ratings36%+6
- Göztepe's ratings42%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Erzurumspor FK at home · Göztepe away
League matches only, Süper Lig, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Erzurumspor FKGöztepe
Erzurumspor FK are 12th after 11 Süper Lig matches (between 8th and 18th so far); Göztepe are 10th after 11 (between 6th and 17th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Süper Lig matches this season: Erzurumspor FK 11, Göztepe 11.
Göztepe score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Erzurumspor FK have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Erzurumspor FK
- at Fenerbahçe29 Nov · Süper Ligwin 9%
- vs Kocaelispor6 Dec · Süper Ligwin 31%
- vs Kasımpaşa12 Dec · Süper Ligwin 29%
- at Başakşehir19 Dec · Süper Ligwin 16%
- vs Trabzonspor17 Jan · Süper Ligwin 19%
Göztepe
- vs Trabzonspor30 Nov · Süper Ligwin 29%
- at Kasımpaşa7 Dec · Süper Ligwin 30%
- vs Konyaspor13 Dec · Süper Ligwin 51%
- at Amed18 Dec · Süper Ligwin 23%
- vs Beşiktaş17 Jan · Süper Ligwin 32%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.