Regular Season - 14 · 20 November 2026, 18:00 UTC

Havelse vs FC Viktoria Köln 3. Liga prediction

Our model says: Havelse 1–2 FC Viktoria Köln

The model makes it 24% Havelse, 24% draw, 52% FC Viktoria Köln — fair odds of 4.17, 4.17 and 1.92.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (10%).

Expected goals: Havelse 1.30, FC Viktoria Köln 2.12.

Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

One-sided: FC Viktoria Köln are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Havelse's rating is built from 51 3. Liga matches and FC Viktoria Köln's from 51, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Havelse are bottom on 10 points from 13 games; FC Viktoria Köln are top on 29 points from 13 games — 3. Liga.
  • Havelse have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to SV Wehen.
  • FC Viktoria Köln are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 5-3 win at home to FC Saarbrücken.
  • Last 4 meetings: Havelse 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 14 March 2026, ended Havelse 3–2 FC Viktoria Köln.

More 3. Liga predictions

All 3. Liga predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Havelse vs FC Viktoria Köln

64%
Both teams to score
66%
Over 2.5 goals
34%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Havelse win Draw FC Viktoria Köln win
  1. 1–210%
  2. 1–19%
  3. 0–27%
  4. 1–37%
  5. 0–16%
  6. 2–26%
  7. 2–16%

Scores read Havelse first; the other scorelines share the remaining 49%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

FC Viktoria Köln at 52%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Havelse vs FC Viktoria Köln

Havelse

3. Liga

  • L0-3away to SV Wehen7 November 2026
  • D1-1FC Ingolstadt 0431 October 2026
  • W3-2FC Saarbrücken25 October 2026
  • D1-1away to SV Meppen18 October 2026
  • D2-2Würzburger Kickers13 October 2026

FC Viktoria Köln

3. Liga

  • W5-3FC Saarbrücken6 November 2026
  • W1-0away to Hoffenheim II31 October 2026
  • W3-1Verl24 October 2026
  • D1-1away to MSV Duisburg18 October 2026
  • D2-2SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach14 October 2026

What these results say

  • Havelse conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Havelse failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Havelse scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • FC Viktoria Köln went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • FC Viktoria Köln scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • FC Viktoria Köln conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

3. Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
20Havelse132471729-1210
1FC Viktoria Köln139223618+1829

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Havelse

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 79% today

Win 72%
Draw 80%
Defeat 83%

FC Viktoria Köln

Chance to finish in the top three · 76% today

Win 80%
Draw 73%
Defeat 69%

From our 3. Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Havelse vs FC Viktoria Köln

  • 14 March 2026Havelse 3–2 FC Viktoria Köln3. Liga
  • 4 October 2025FC Viktoria Köln 4–1 Havelse3. Liga
  • 25 February 2022FC Viktoria Köln 0–0 Havelse3. Liga
  • 17 September 2021Havelse 1–0 FC Viktoria Köln3. Liga

Leading scorers: Havelse and FC Viktoria Köln

Havelse

GoalsAssists

  • K. Okyere Wriedt32

FC Viktoria Köln

GoalsAssists

  • D. Otto55
  • N. Castelle52

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Havelse a 0% chance of the title and FC Viktoria Köln 33.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Havelse v FC Viktoria Köln has moved

First published on 6 Nov at 25% / 25% / 50% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 24% / 24% / 52%: the biggest move is FC Viktoria Köln's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Havelse win24%▼ −1
  2. Draw24%▼ −1
  3. FC Viktoria Köln win52%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Havelse FC Viktoria Köln
0.49 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.69
2.55 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.63
1.30 Model expected goals (this match) 2.12

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives FC Viktoria Köln the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Havelse against 2.12 for FC Viktoria Köln. Havelse's attack/defence rating is 0.49/2.55 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.63 for FC Viktoria Köln.

Havelse carry a model rating of 6.03 against 6.42 for FC Viktoria Köln.

How the model reaches 52% for FC Viktoria Köln to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FC Viktoria Köln to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Havelse's ratings add 11 points and FC Viktoria Köln's ratings add 12 points, which lands on the published 52%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage29%−7
  3. Havelse's ratings40%+11
  4. FC Viktoria Köln's ratings52%+12

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

HavelseFC Viktoria Köln
13Matches13
2W 4D 7LRecord9W 2D 2L
17 1.3 per gameGoals scored36 2.8 per game
29 2.2 per gameGoals conceded18 1.4 per game
0 of 13Clean sheets3 of 13
3 of 13Failed to score1 of 13
2 of 5Penalties scored–
37 2.8 per gameYellow cards25 1.9 per game
2Red cards0
3-5-2 4×Usual shape3-4-2-1 4×

Havelse at home · FC Viktoria Köln away

7Played6
2W 3D 2LRecord4W 1D 1L
14–15Goals for – against13–6
0 of 7Clean sheets1 of 6

League matches only, 3. Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All 3. Liga matches this season: Havelse 13, FC Viktoria Köln 13.

Havelse scored 423313
FC Viktoria Köln conceded 052362

Havelse score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); FC Viktoria Köln have let in 0 there.

FC Viktoria Köln scored 826658
Havelse conceded 527249

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Havelse

  • at Hansa Rostock27 Nov · 3. Ligawin 16%
  • at Alemannia Aachen5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 16%
  • vs Hoffenheim II12 Dec · 3. Ligawin 36%
  • at Verl19 Dec · 3. Ligawin 20%
  • vs Fortuna Düsseldorf16 Jan · 3. Ligawin 35%

FC Viktoria Köln

  • vs Fortuna Köln29 Nov · 3. Ligawin 60%
  • at Würzburger Kickers5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 47%
  • vs Fortuna Düsseldorf12 Dec · 3. Ligawin 56%
  • vs Waldhof Mannheim19 Dec · 3. Ligawin 59%
  • at SV Wehen16 Jan · 3. Ligawin 31%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.