Regular Season - 14 · 22 November 2026, 18:30 UTC

MSV Duisburg vs Hansa Rostock 3. Liga prediction

Schauinsland-Reisen-Arena, Duisburg

Our model says: MSV Duisburg 2–1 Hansa Rostock

The model makes it 52% MSV Duisburg, 24% draw, 24% Hansa Rostock — fair odds of 1.92, 4.17 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: MSV Duisburg 2.01, Hansa Rostock 1.21.

Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. MSV Duisburg's rating is built from 51 3. Liga matches and Hansa Rostock's from 51, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • MSV Duisburg are 2nd on 29 points from 13 games; Hansa Rostock are 10th on 19 points from 13 games — 3. Liga.
  • MSV Duisburg have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Preußen Münster.
  • Hansa Rostock have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach.
  • Last 6 meetings: Hansa Rostock 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 14 March 2026, ended Hansa Rostock 5–1 MSV Duisburg.

More 3. Liga predictions

All 3. Liga predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: MSV Duisburg vs Hansa Rostock

61%
Both teams to score
62%
Over 2.5 goals
38%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

MSV Duisburg win Draw Hansa Rostock win
  1. 1–110%
  2. 2–110%
  3. 2–08%
  4. 1–08%
  5. 3–17%
  6. 2–26%
  7. 1–26%

Scores read MSV Duisburg first; the other scorelines share the remaining 46%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

MSV Duisburg at 52%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into MSV Duisburg vs Hansa Rostock

MSV Duisburg

3. Liga

  • W2-1away to Preußen Münster7 November 2026
  • D3-3Stuttgart II31 October 2026
  • L1-2away to FC Ingolstadt 0424 October 2026
  • D1-1FC Viktoria Köln18 October 2026
  • W4-2away to FC Saarbrücken13 October 2026

Hansa Rostock

3. Liga

  • W3-0SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach7 November 2026
  • L1-2away to SSV Jahn Regensburg31 October 2026
  • D1-1Fortuna Düsseldorf24 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Alemannia Aachen17 October 2026
  • L0-2SV Meppen13 October 2026

What these results say

  • MSV Duisburg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • MSV Duisburg conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for MSV Duisburg.
  • Hansa Rostock failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Hansa Rostock conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

3. Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2MSV Duisburg139223318+1529
10Hansa Rostock135442222019

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

MSV Duisburg

Chance to win the league · 43% today

Win 47%
Draw 38%
Defeat 34%

Hansa Rostock

Chance to finish in the top three · 16% today

Win 22%
Draw 17%
Defeat 13%

From our 3. Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: MSV Duisburg vs Hansa Rostock

  • 14 March 2026Hansa Rostock 5–1 MSV Duisburg3. Liga
  • 3 October 2025MSV Duisburg 2–2 Hansa Rostock3. Liga
  • 23 January 2021MSV Duisburg 1–2 Hansa Rostock3. Liga
  • 19 September 2020Hansa Rostock 3–1 MSV Duisburg3. Liga
  • 20 June 2020MSV Duisburg 0–0 Hansa Rostock3. Liga
  • 9 November 2019Hansa Rostock 1–2 MSV Duisburg3. Liga

Leading scorers: MSV Duisburg and Hansa Rostock

MSV Duisburg

GoalsAssists

  • L. Lobinger44
  • P. Remmert40

Hansa Rostock

GoalsAssists

  • A. Voglsammer41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives MSV Duisburg a 42.7% chance of the title and Hansa Rostock 2.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

MSV Duisburg Hansa Rostock
0.69 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.61
1.64 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.79
2.01 Model expected goals (this match) 1.21

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives MSV Duisburg the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.01 expected goals for MSV Duisburg against 1.21 for Hansa Rostock. MSV Duisburg's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.79 for Hansa Rostock.

MSV Duisburg carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.31 for Hansa Rostock. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 52% for MSV Duisburg to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for MSV Duisburg to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, MSV Duisburg's ratings add 4 points and Hansa Rostock's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 52%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level45%+1
  4. MSV Duisburg's ratings49%+4
  5. Hansa Rostock's ratings52%+3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

MSV DuisburgHansa Rostock
13Matches13
9W 2D 2LRecord5W 4D 4L
33 2.5 per gameGoals scored22 1.7 per game
18 1.4 per gameGoals conceded22 1.7 per game
2 of 13Clean sheets2 of 13
0 of 13Failed to score3 of 13
1 of 1Penalties scored3 of 3
27 2.1 per gameYellow cards38 2.9 per game
2Red cards2
3-4-3 4×Usual shape4-2-3-1 6×

MSV Duisburg at home · Hansa Rostock away

6Played7
4W 2D 0LRecord3W 1D 3L
15–7Goals for – against11–13
2 of 6Clean sheets1 of 7

League matches only, 3. Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All 3. Liga matches this season: MSV Duisburg 13, Hansa Rostock 13.

MSV Duisburg scored 7532105
Hansa Rostock conceded 431734

MSV Duisburg score most often in the 61–75 minute window (10 goals); Hansa Rostock have let in 3 there.

Hansa Rostock scored 214725
MSV Duisburg conceded 114534

Hansa Rostock score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); MSV Duisburg have let in 5 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

MSV Duisburg

  • at SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach28 Nov · 3. Ligawin 56%
  • vs Waldhof Mannheim5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 59%
  • at Rot-Weiß Essen12 Dec · 3. Ligawin 32%
  • vs Alemannia Aachen19 Dec · 3. Ligawin 50%
  • at Fortuna Köln16 Jan · 3. Ligawin 45%

Hansa Rostock

  • vs Havelse27 Nov · 3. Ligawin 64%
  • at Fortuna Köln5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 40%
  • vs Verl12 Dec · 3. Ligawin 50%
  • vs Preußen Münster19 Dec · 3. Ligawin 56%
  • at FC Ingolstadt 0416 Jan · 3. Ligawin 31%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.