MVV
vs
Vitesse
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: MVV 0–1 Vitesse
The model makes it 29% MVV, 30% draw, 41% Vitesse — fair odds of 3.45, 3.33 and 2.44.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: MVV 1.01, Vitesse 1.32.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,531 settled matches.
Edge to Vitesse: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 1 November 2026. MVV's rating is built from 51 Eerste Divisie matches and Vitesse's from 50, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- MVV are 10th on 17 points from 13 games; Vitesse are 8th on 17 points from 12 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- MVV have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to VVV Venlo.
- Vitesse have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Emmen.
- Last 4 meetings: level at 1 win each, 2 draws; the most recent, 17 April 2026, ended Vitesse 0–0 MVV.
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: MVV vs Vitesse
Has the model earned this number?
Vitesse at 41%: of 2,529 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.4% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into MVV vs Vitesse
MVV
Eerste Divisie
- L1-2VVV Venlo31 October 2026
- D2-2away to Den Bosch23 October 2026
- L1-5Heracles18 October 2026
- L0-1away to NAC Breda9 October 2026
- L1-4away to FC OSS3 October 2026
Vitesse
Eerste Divisie
- L0-2Emmen23 October 2026
- W1-0away to FC Eindhoven16 October 2026
- L0-2away to FC Volendam9 October 2026
- D2-2NAC Breda3 October 2026
- L0-2away to Heracles26 September 2026
What these results say
- MVV did not win any of these 5 matches.
- MVV conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- MVV scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vitesse failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vitesse conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Vitesse had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | MVV | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 29 | -12 | 17 |
| 8 | Vitesse | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: MVV vs Vitesse
- 17 April 2026Vitesse 0–0 MVVEerste Divisie
- 21 October 2025MVV 3–2 VitesseEerste Divisie
- 1 March 2025Vitesse 1–0 MVVEerste Divisie
- 6 December 2024MVV 2–2 VitesseEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: MVV and Vitesse
MVV
GoalsAssists
- O. Dumont51
Vitesse
GoalsAssists
- N. Bannis103
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The two sides
MVV carry a model rating of 6.07 against 6.36 for Vitesse.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.01 goals for MVV and 1.32 for Vitesse.
MVV rate 0.43 in attack and 2.06 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Vitesse rate 0.53 and 1.45.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives MVV a 0% chance of the title and Vitesse 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vitesse the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.01 expected goals for MVV against 1.32 for Vitesse. MVV's attack/defence rating is 0.43/2.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.45 for Vitesse.
How the model reaches 41% for Vitesse to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Vitesse to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, MVV's ratings add 7 points and Vitesse's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Both sides at this match's level28%−1
- MVV's ratings35%+7
- Vitesse's ratings41%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
MVV at home · Vitesse away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: MVV 13, Vitesse 12.
MVV score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Vitesse have let in 5 there.
Vitesse score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); MVV have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
MVV
- at De Graafschap20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 20%
- vs Jong PSV U2127 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 33%
- vs Dordrecht4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 42%
- at Jong Ajax11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 23%
Vitesse
- vs Jong AZ20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 48%
- at Dordrecht27 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 40%
- vs VVV Venlo4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 39%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.