DC United
vs
New York City FC
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: DC United 0–1 New York City FC
The model makes it 32% DC United, 29% draw, 39% New York City FC — fair odds of 3.13, 3.45 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: DC United 1.20, New York City FC 1.38.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 957 settled matches.
Edge to New York City FC: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. DC United's rating is built from 64 MLS matches and New York City FC's from 69, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,513 matches.
Key facts
- DC United are 13th on 33 points from 30 games; New York City FC are 12th on 34 points from 30 games — Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference.
- DC United have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to FC Cincinnati.
- New York City FC have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Los Angeles FC.
- Last 6 meetings: DC United 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 3 May 2026, ended New York City FC 0–2 DC United.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: DC United vs New York City FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts New York City FC at 39% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into DC United vs New York City FC
DC United
Major League Soccer
- L1-2away to FC Cincinnati21 October 2026
- L1-4away to Orlando City SC17 October 2026
- W2-1New York Red Bulls14 October 2026
- L0-4away to Inter Miami10 October 2026
- D3-3away to Vancouver Whitecaps27 September 2026
New York City FC
Major League Soccer
- D1-1Los Angeles FC17 October 2026
- L0-2away to Inter Miami14 October 2026
- L1-2away to Chicago Fire10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Atlanta United FC26 September 2026
- L0-1New York Red Bulls18 September 2026
What these results say
- DC United conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for DC United had three goals or more.
- DC United failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- New York City FC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- New York City FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | DC United | 30 | 7 | 12 | 11 | 38 | 53 | -15 | 33 |
| 12 | New York City FC | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 43 | 41 | +2 | 34 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: DC United vs New York City FC
- 3 May 2026New York City FC 0–2 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
- 30 August 2025New York City FC 1–2 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
- 14 May 2025DC United 0–0 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 14 September 2024DC United 1–1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 20 April 2024New York City FC 2–0 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
- 7 October 2023DC United 2–0 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: DC United and New York City FC
DC United
GoalsAssists
- T. Baribo161
New York City FC
GoalsAssists
- N. Fernández Mercau155
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
DC United carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.54 for New York City FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.20 goals for DC United and 1.38 for New York City FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
DC United rate 0.56 in attack and 1.55 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; New York City FC rate 0.61 and 1.17.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives New York City FC the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.20 expected goals for DC United against 1.38 for New York City FC. DC United's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.55 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.17 for New York City FC.
How the model reaches 39% for New York City FC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for New York City FC to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, DC United's ratings add 29 points and New York City FC's ratings take away 21 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage31%−6
- DC United's ratings60%+29
- New York City FC's ratings39%−21
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
DC United at home · New York City FC away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: DC United 28, New York City FC 29.
DC United score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); New York City FC have let in 10 there.
New York City FC score most often in the 16–30 minute window (11 goals); DC United have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.