Chicago Fire
vs
Columbus Crew
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Chicago Fire 2–1 Columbus Crew
The model makes it 45% Chicago Fire, 26% draw, 29% Columbus Crew — fair odds of 2.22, 3.85 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Chicago Fire 1.80, Columbus Crew 1.36.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Chicago Fire's rating is built from 67 MLS matches and Columbus Crew's from 67, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,513 matches.
Key facts
- Chicago Fire are 4th on 48 points from 30 games; Columbus Crew are 11th on 35 points from 30 games — Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference.
- Chicago Fire have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to New England Revolution.
- Columbus Crew have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to FC Cincinnati.
- Last 6 meetings: Columbus Crew 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 8 March 2026, ended Columbus Crew 0–0 Chicago Fire.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Chicago Fire vs Columbus Crew
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Chicago Fire at 45% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Chicago Fire vs Columbus Crew
Chicago Fire
Major League Soccer
- L0-1away to New England Revolution17 October 2026
- L1-3Philadelphia Union15 October 2026
- W2-1New York City FC10 October 2026
- W3-1Vancouver Whitecaps7 October 2026
- W1-0away to Charlotte26 September 2026
Columbus Crew
Major League Soccer
- W2-0away to FC Cincinnati18 October 2026
- W3-1Charlotte14 October 2026
- L2-3away to Orlando City SC10 October 2026
- W2-1Inter Miami27 September 2026
- W2-0away to CF Montreal19 September 2026
What these results say
- Chicago Fire scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Chicago Fire conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Columbus Crew scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Columbus Crew won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 52 | 44 | +8 | 48 |
| 11 | Columbus Crew | 30 | 10 | 5 | 15 | 46 | 47 | -1 | 35 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Chicago Fire vs Columbus Crew
- 8 March 2026Columbus Crew 0–0 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 28 September 2025Chicago Fire 2–0 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
- 23 February 2025Columbus Crew 4–2 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 19 May 2024Chicago Fire 1–3 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
- 10 March 2024Columbus Crew 2–1 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 20 September 2023Columbus Crew 3–0 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Chicago Fire and Columbus Crew
Chicago Fire
GoalsAssists
- H. Cuypers130
Columbus Crew
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 46 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Chicago Fire carry a model rating of 6.56 against 6.53 for Columbus Crew. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.80 goals for Chicago Fire and 1.36 for Columbus Crew. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Chicago Fire rate 0.75 in attack and 1.35 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Columbus Crew rate 0.69 and 1.31.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Chicago Fire the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Chicago Fire against 1.36 for Columbus Crew. Chicago Fire's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.31 for Columbus Crew.
How the model reaches 45% for Chicago Fire to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Chicago Fire to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Chicago Fire's ratings take away 16 points and Columbus Crew's ratings add 17 points, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Chicago Fire's ratings28%−16
- Columbus Crew's ratings45%+17
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Chicago Fire at home · Columbus Crew away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Chicago Fire 29, Columbus Crew 29.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.