New York Red Bulls
vs
Atlanta United FC
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: New York Red Bulls 1–0 Atlanta United FC
The model makes it 40% New York Red Bulls, 28% draw, 32% Atlanta United FC — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: New York Red Bulls 1.44, Atlanta United FC 1.21.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. New York Red Bulls's rating is built from 64 MLS matches and Atlanta United FC's from 64, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,513 matches.
Key facts
- New York Red Bulls are 9th on 36 points from 30 games; Atlanta United FC are 14th on 30 points from 30 games — Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference.
- New York Red Bulls have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Toronto FC.
- Atlanta United FC have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Inter Miami.
- Last 6 meetings: Atlanta United FC 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 15 August 2026, ended Atlanta United FC 2–1 New York Red Bulls.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts New York Red Bulls at 40% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United FC
New York Red Bulls
Major League Soccer
- L0-2Toronto FC17 October 2026
- L1-2away to DC United14 October 2026
- W4-1San Diego10 October 2026
- L0-3St. Louis City30 September 2026
- W1-0away to New York City FC18 September 2026
Atlanta United FC
Major League Soccer
- L1-3Inter Miami17 October 2026
- W3-0away to CF Montreal14 October 2026
- L1-3FC Cincinnati10 October 2026
- D2-2New York City FC26 September 2026
- W1-0away to Portland Timbers20 September 2026
What these results say
- New York Red Bulls conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atlanta United FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Atlanta United FC had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | New York Red Bulls | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 39 | 56 | -17 | 36 |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 30 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 37 | 51 | -14 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United FC
- 15 August 2026Atlanta United FC 2–1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 11 February 2026Atlanta United FC 3–2 New York Red BullsFriendlies Clubs
- 31 May 2025New York Red Bulls 2–0 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 9 March 2025Atlanta United FC 0–0 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 5 October 2024Atlanta United FC 2–1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 21 September 2024New York Red Bulls 2–2 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
New York Red Bulls carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.4 for Atlanta United FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.44 goals for New York Red Bulls and 1.21 for Atlanta United FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
New York Red Bulls rate 0.55 in attack and 1.46 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atlanta United FC rate 0.57 and 1.43.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives New York Red Bulls the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for New York Red Bulls against 1.21 for Atlanta United FC. New York Red Bulls's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.46 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.43 for Atlanta United FC.
How the model reaches 40% for New York Red Bulls to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for New York Red Bulls to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, New York Red Bulls's ratings take away 25 points and Atlanta United FC's ratings add 21 points, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- New York Red Bulls's ratings19%−25
- Atlanta United FC's ratings40%+21
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
New York Red Bulls at home · Atlanta United FC away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: New York Red Bulls 29, Atlanta United FC 29.
New York Red Bulls score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Atlanta United FC have let in 14 there.
Atlanta United FC score most often in the 61–75 minute window (8 goals); New York Red Bulls have let in 10 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.