CF Montreal
vs
Vancouver Whitecaps
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: CF Montreal 1–2 Vancouver Whitecaps
The model makes it 22% CF Montreal, 25% draw, 53% Vancouver Whitecaps — fair odds of 4.55, 4.00 and 1.89. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: CF Montreal 1.02, Vancouver Whitecaps 1.89.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,486 settled matches.
One-sided: Vancouver Whitecaps are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. CF Montreal's rating is built from 64 MLS matches and Vancouver Whitecaps's from 69, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,513 matches.
Key facts
- CF Montreal are bottom in Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference on 25 points from 30 games; Vancouver Whitecaps are top in Major League Soccer, Western Conference on 55 points from 30 games.
- CF Montreal are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Seattle Sounders.
- Vancouver Whitecaps are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Austin.
- Last 6 meetings: Vancouver Whitecaps 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 16 September 2026, ended CF Montreal 2–1 Vancouver Whitecaps.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: CF Montreal vs Vancouver Whitecaps
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vancouver Whitecaps at 53% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into CF Montreal vs Vancouver Whitecaps
CF Montreal
Major League Soccer
- D1-1away to Seattle Sounders18 October 2026
- L0-3Atlanta United FC14 October 2026
- L1-2away to Toronto FC10 October 2026
- W3-1FC Cincinnati26 September 2026
- L0-2Columbus Crew19 September 2026
Vancouver Whitecaps
Major League Soccer
- W2-1away to Austin18 October 2026
- D0-0away to St. Louis City15 October 2026
- D1-1away to Los Angeles FC11 October 2026
- L1-3away to Chicago Fire7 October 2026
- D3-3DC United27 September 2026
What these results say
- CF Montreal conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- CF Montreal failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vancouver Whitecaps failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vancouver Whitecaps scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vancouver Whitecaps conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | CF Montreal | 30 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 36 | 60 | -24 | 25 |
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 63 | 31 | +32 | 55 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: CF Montreal vs Vancouver Whitecaps
- 16 September 2026CF Montreal 2–1 Vancouver WhitecapsCanadian Championship
- 3 September 2026Vancouver Whitecaps 1–1 CF MontrealCanadian Championship
- 9 March 2025Vancouver Whitecaps 2–0 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
- 6 July 2024CF Montreal 1–1 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
- 8 June 2023Vancouver Whitecaps 2–1 CF MontrealCanadian Championship
- 2 April 2023Vancouver Whitecaps 5–0 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: CF Montreal and Vancouver Whitecaps
CF Montreal
GoalsAssists
- P. Owusu156
Vancouver Whitecaps
GoalsAssists
- B. White172
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
CF Montreal carry a model rating of 6.28 against 6.7 for Vancouver Whitecaps. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.02 goals for CF Montreal and 1.89 for Vancouver Whitecaps. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
CF Montreal rate 0.51 in attack and 1.60 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Vancouver Whitecaps rate 0.81 and 1.09.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vancouver Whitecaps the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.02 expected goals for CF Montreal against 1.89 for Vancouver Whitecaps. CF Montreal's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.09 for Vancouver Whitecaps.
How the model reaches 53% for Vancouver Whitecaps to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Vancouver Whitecaps to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, CF Montreal's ratings add 32 points and Vancouver Whitecaps's ratings take away 10 points, which lands on the published 53%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage31%−6
- CF Montreal's ratings63%+32
- Vancouver Whitecaps's ratings53%−10
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
CF Montreal at home · Vancouver Whitecaps away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: CF Montreal 29, Vancouver Whitecaps 30.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.