Orgryte IS
vs
Vasteras SK FK
Allsvenskan prediction
Our model says: Orgryte IS 1–2 Vasteras SK FK
The model makes it 31% Orgryte IS, 25% draw, 44% Vasteras SK FK — fair odds of 3.23, 4.00 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Orgryte IS 1.46, Vasteras SK FK 1.81.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Edge to Vasteras SK FK: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Orgryte IS's rating is built from 26 Allsvenskan matches and Vasteras SK FK's from 25, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 678 matches.
Key facts
- Orgryte IS are 15th on 18 points from 24 games; Vasteras SK FK are 6th on 38 points from 25 games — Allsvenskan.
- Orgryte IS have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-2 win at home to Gais.
- Vasteras SK FK have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Halmstad.
- Last 6 meetings: Vasteras SK FK 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 24 July 2026, ended Vasteras SK FK 2–0 Orgryte IS.
More Allsvenskan predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vasteras SK FK at 44% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK
Orgryte IS
Allsvenskan
- W4-2Gais18 October 2026
- L0-3away to BK Hacken11 October 2026
- L1-2Sirius19 September 2026
- L1-4away to Malmo FF13 September 2026
- D1-1Hammarby FF6 September 2026
Vasteras SK FK
Allsvenskan
- L1-2Halmstad23 October 2026
- W1-0Mjallby AIF18 October 2026
- L0-1away to IFK Goteborg9 October 2026
- W2-0Malmo FF19 September 2026
- W4-1away to AIK Stockholm12 September 2026
What these results say
- Orgryte IS conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Orgryte IS failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Orgryte IS scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vasteras SK FK scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Orgryte IS | 24 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 29 | 54 | -25 | 18 |
| 6 | Vasteras SK FK | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 36 | 38 | -2 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK
- 24 July 2026Vasteras SK FK 2–0 Orgryte ISAllsvenskan
- 24 October 2025Orgryte IS 0–2 Vasteras SK FKSuperettan
- 8 April 2025Vasteras SK FK 1–1 Orgryte ISSuperettan
- 4 November 2023Orgryte IS 1–0 Vasteras SK FKSuperettan
- 10 April 2023Vasteras SK FK 0–0 Orgryte ISSuperettan
- 27 August 2022Vasteras SK FK 1–1 Orgryte ISSuperettan
Leading scorers: Orgryte IS and Vasteras SK FK
Orgryte IS
GoalsAssists
- N. Christoffersson81
Vasteras SK FK
GoalsAssists
- M. Ladefoged92
- A. Taonsa90
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Orgryte IS carry a model rating of 6.23 against 6.41 for Vasteras SK FK. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.46 goals for Orgryte IS and 1.81 for Vasteras SK FK. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Orgryte IS rate 0.60 in attack and 2.12 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Vasteras SK FK rate 0.62 and 1.50.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vasteras SK FK the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Orgryte IS against 1.81 for Vasteras SK FK. Orgryte IS's attack/defence rating is 0.6/2.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.5 for Vasteras SK FK.
How the model reaches 44% for Vasteras SK FK to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Vasteras SK FK to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, Orgryte IS's ratings add 39 points and Vasteras SK FK's ratings take away 27 points, which lands on the published 44%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage32%−4
- Orgryte IS's ratings71%+39
- Vasteras SK FK's ratings44%−27
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Orgryte IS at home · Vasteras SK FK away
League matches only, Allsvenskan, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Allsvenskan matches this season: Orgryte IS 24, Vasteras SK FK 25.
Vasteras SK FK score most often in the 46–60 minute window (8 goals); Orgryte IS have let in 10 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Orgryte IS
- vs Kalmar FF23 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 42%
- at Degerfors IF29 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 33%
Vasteras SK FK
- at Gais21 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 28%
- vs Hammarby FF29 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 25%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.