Degerfors IF
vs
Gais
Allsvenskan prediction
Our model says: Degerfors IF 0–1 Gais
The model makes it 26% Degerfors IF, 30% draw, 44% Gais — fair odds of 3.85, 3.33 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (14%).
Expected goals: Degerfors IF 0.90, Gais 1.31.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Edge to Gais: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Degerfors IF's rating is built from 54 Allsvenskan matches and Gais's from 54, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 678 matches.
Key facts
- Degerfors IF are 14th on 20 points from 24 games; Gais are 10th on 30 points from 24 games — Allsvenskan.
- Degerfors IF are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Kalmar FF.
- Gais have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat away to Orgryte IS.
- Last 6 meetings: Gais 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 16 May 2026, ended Gais 1–1 Degerfors IF.
More Allsvenskan predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Degerfors IF vs Gais
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gais at 44% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Degerfors IF vs Gais
Degerfors IF
Allsvenskan
- L1-2Kalmar FF19 October 2026
- D1-1away to Mjallby AIF10 October 2026
- L0-1Hammarby FF20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Sirius14 September 2026
- W2-0Halmstad5 September 2026
Gais
Allsvenskan
- L2-4away to Orgryte IS18 October 2026
- L0-1Sirius10 October 2026
- W3-0away to Mjallby AIF20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Djurgardens IF14 September 2026
- D0-0BK Hacken5 September 2026
What these results say
- Degerfors IF failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Degerfors IF conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Degerfors IF had two goals or fewer.
- Gais failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Degerfors IF | 24 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 21 | 37 | -16 | 20 |
| 10 | Gais | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 30 | 25 | +5 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Degerfors IF vs Gais
- 16 May 2026Gais 1–1 Degerfors IFAllsvenskan
- 19 July 2025Degerfors IF 0–3 GaisAllsvenskan
- 13 April 2025Gais 2–0 Degerfors IFAllsvenskan
- 24 February 2024Degerfors IF 2–2 GaisSvenska Cupen
- 9 February 2023Gais 1–0 Degerfors IFFriendlies Clubs
- 7 November 2020Degerfors IF 2–1 GaisSuperettan
The two sides
Degerfors IF carry a model rating of 6.23 against 6.5 for Gais. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.90 goals for Degerfors IF and 1.31 for Gais. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Degerfors IF rate 0.45 in attack and 1.61 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gais rate 0.59 and 1.23.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gais the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Degerfors IF against 1.31 for Gais. Degerfors IF's attack/defence rating is 0.45/1.61 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.23 for Gais.
How the model reaches 44% for Gais to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Gais to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, Degerfors IF's ratings add 33 points and Gais's ratings take away 21 points, which lands on the published 44%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage32%−4
- Degerfors IF's ratings65%+33
- Gais's ratings44%−21
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Degerfors IF at home · Gais away
League matches only, Allsvenskan, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Allsvenskan matches this season: Degerfors IF 24, Gais 24.
Degerfors IF score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Gais have let in 5 there.
Gais score most often in the 46–60 minute window (10 goals); Degerfors IF have let in 9 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Degerfors IF
- at AIK Stockholm21 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 25%
- vs Orgryte IS29 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 40%
Gais
- vs Vasteras SK FK21 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 43%
- at IF Elfsborg29 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 29%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.