Orlando City SC
vs
New England Revolution
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Orlando City SC 2–1 New England Revolution
The model makes it 43% Orlando City SC, 23% draw, 34% New England Revolution — fair odds of 2.33, 4.35 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Orlando City SC 2.09, New England Revolution 1.80.
Both teams to score: 74%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%, under 2.5: 25%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Orlando City SC's rating is built from 65 MLS matches and New England Revolution's from 64, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,513 matches.
Key facts
- Orlando City SC are 7th on 41 points from 30 games; New England Revolution are 3rd on 52 points from 30 games — Major League Soccer, Eastern Conference.
- Orlando City SC are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 4-1 win at home to DC United.
- New England Revolution have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Chicago Fire.
- Last 6 meetings: Orlando City SC 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 19 September 2026, ended New England Revolution 4–2 Orlando City SC.
More MLS predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Orlando City SC vs New England Revolution
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Orlando City SC at 43% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Orlando City SC vs New England Revolution
Orlando City SC
Major League Soccer
- W4-1DC United17 October 2026
- D3-3away to Toronto FC14 October 2026
- W3-2Columbus Crew10 October 2026
- L2-4away to Philadelphia Union26 September 2026
- L2-4away to New England Revolution19 September 2026
New England Revolution
Major League Soccer
- W1-0Chicago Fire17 October 2026
- W3-2away to FC Cincinnati14 October 2026
- L0-3Seattle Sounders10 October 2026
- L0-3away to Real Salt Lake27 September 2026
- W4-2Orlando City SC19 September 2026
What these results say
- Orlando City SC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Orlando City SC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Orlando City SC had three goals or more.
- New England Revolution conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for New England Revolution had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 30 | 12 | 5 | 13 | 58 | 70 | -12 | 41 |
| 3 | New England Revolution | 30 | 16 | 4 | 10 | 49 | 41 | +8 | 52 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Orlando City SC vs New England Revolution
- 19 September 2026New England Revolution 4–2 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- 29 April 2026New England Revolution 3–4 Orlando City SCUS Open Cup
- 19 July 2025New England Revolution 1–2 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- 10 May 2025Orlando City SC 3–3 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- 14 September 2024Orlando City SC 3–0 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- 13 July 2024New England Revolution 1–3 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Orlando City SC and New England Revolution
Orlando City SC
GoalsAssists
- M. Ojeda153
New England Revolution
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 49 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Orlando City SC carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.54 for New England Revolution. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.09 goals for Orlando City SC and 1.80 for New England Revolution. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Orlando City SC rate 0.88 in attack and 1.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; New England Revolution rate 0.70 and 1.30.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Orlando City SC the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Orlando City SC against 1.80 for New England Revolution. Orlando City SC's attack/defence rating is 0.88/1.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.3 for New England Revolution.
How the model reaches 43% for Orlando City SC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Orlando City SC to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Orlando City SC's ratings take away 19 points and New England Revolution's ratings add 18 points, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Orlando City SC's ratings25%−19
- New England Revolution's ratings43%+18
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Orlando City SC at home · New England Revolution away
League matches only, Major League Soccer, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Major League Soccer matches this season: Orlando City SC 29, New England Revolution 29.
Orlando City SC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (17 goals); New England Revolution have let in 5 there.
New England Revolution score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Orlando City SC have let in 15 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.