America Mineiro
vs
Avai
Serie B prediction
Our model says: America Mineiro 1–0 Avai
The model makes it 35% America Mineiro, 30% draw, 35% Avai — fair odds of 2.86, 3.33 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: America Mineiro 1.16, Avai 1.17.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 1,094 settled matches.
A tight game: America Mineiro and Avai are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. America Mineiro's rating is built from 73 Brazilian Serie B matches and Avai's from 73, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- America Mineiro are 19th on 23 points from 35 games; Avai are 17th on 37 points from 35 games — Serie B.
- America Mineiro have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Cuiaba.
- Avai have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Botafogo SP.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 21 July 2026, ended Avai 2–1 America Mineiro.
More Brazilian Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: America Mineiro vs Avai
Has the model earned this number?
America Mineiro at 35%: of 3,980 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.7% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into America Mineiro vs Avai
America Mineiro
Serie B
- W1-0Cuiaba26 October 2026
- W1-0Operario-PR17 October 2026
- L0-1away to Criciuma12 October 2026
- L0-1Fortaleza EC7 October 2026
- L0-2away to Atletico Goianiense3 October 2026
Avai
Serie B
- L0-2Botafogo SP24 October 2026
- D0-0Athletic Club MG18 October 2026
- W1-0away to Cuiaba11 October 2026
- W2-1Londrina7 October 2026
- L0-1Ceara3 October 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for America Mineiro had two goals or fewer.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Avai had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | America Mineiro | 35 | 6 | 5 | 24 | 23 | 54 | -31 | 23 |
| 17 | Avai | 35 | 10 | 7 | 18 | 33 | 45 | -12 | 37 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: America Mineiro vs Avai
- 21 July 2026Avai 2–1 America MineiroSerie B
- 2 September 2025America Mineiro 2–0 AvaiSerie B
- 26 April 2025Avai 3–0 America MineiroSerie B
- 12 October 2024Avai 2–2 America MineiroSerie B
- 26 June 2024America Mineiro 1–1 AvaiSerie B
- 31 July 2022America Mineiro 3–1 AvaiSerie A
The two sides
America Mineiro carry a model rating of 6.09 against 6.24 for Avai.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.16 goals for America Mineiro and 1.17 for Avai.
America Mineiro rate 0.41 in attack and 1.91 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Avai rate 0.51 and 1.74.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Avai, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives America Mineiro the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.16 expected goals for America Mineiro against 1.17 for Avai. America Mineiro's attack/defence rating is 0.41/1.91 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.74 for Avai.
How the model reaches 35% for America Mineiro to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for America Mineiro to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, America Mineiro's ratings take away 4 points and Avai's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 35%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level42%−2
- America Mineiro's ratings38%−4
- Avai's ratings35%−3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
America Mineiro at home · Avai away
League matches only, Serie B, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: America Mineiro 35, Avai 35.
America Mineiro score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Avai have let in 12 there.
Avai score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); America Mineiro have let in 16 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.