Coquimbo Unido
vs
Union La Calera
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Coquimbo Unido 2–0 Union La Calera
The model makes it 59% Coquimbo Unido, 24% draw, 17% Union La Calera — fair odds of 1.69, 4.17 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Coquimbo Unido 1.97, Union La Calera 0.83.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Coquimbo Unido: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Coquimbo Unido are 7th on 32 points from 23 games; Union La Calera are bottom on 18 points from 24 games — Primera División.
- Coquimbo Unido have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 5-2 win at home to Colo Colo.
- Union La Calera have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Concepción.
- Last 6 meetings: Coquimbo Unido 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 12 July 2026, ended Coquimbo Unido 0–1 Union La Calera.
More Chilean Primera División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Coquimbo Unido at 59% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera
Coquimbo Unido
- W5-2Colo Colo11 October 2026
- L2-3away to Cobresal12 September 2026
- L2-4away to Universidad de Chile6 September 2026
- W1-0Universidad de Concepcion2 September 2026
- L1-2Universidad Catolica26 August 2026
Union La Calera
- D1-1away to Concepción11 October 2026
- W1-0Deportes Limache14 September 2026
- L1-2away to O'Higgins6 September 2026
- L0-1Deportes La Serena31 August 2026
- D0-0away to Audax Italiano22 August 2026
What these results say
- Coquimbo Unido scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Coquimbo Unido conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Coquimbo Unido had three goals or more.
- Union La Calera failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Union La Calera had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Coquimbo Unido | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 36 | 33 | +3 | 32 |
| 16 | Union La Calera | 24 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 20 | 41 | -21 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera
- 12 July 2026Coquimbo Unido 0–1 Union La CaleraCopa De La Liga
- 8 July 2026Union La Calera 0–1 Coquimbo UnidoCopa De La Liga
- 24 April 2026Union La Calera 1–2 Coquimbo UnidoPrimera División
- 2 November 2025Coquimbo Unido 2–0 Union La CaleraPrimera División
- 2 July 2025Union La Calera 1–4 Coquimbo UnidoCopa Chile
- 8 June 2025Coquimbo Unido 2–1 Union La CaleraCopa Chile
Leading scorers: Coquimbo Unido and Union La Calera
Coquimbo Unido
GoalsAssists
- N. Johansen90
Union La Calera
GoalsAssists
- S. Sáez81
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Coquimbo Unido carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.24 for Union La Calera. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.97 goals for Coquimbo Unido and 0.83 for Union La Calera. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Coquimbo Unido rate 0.75 in attack and 1.47 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Union La Calera rate 0.45 and 1.57.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Coquimbo Unido the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido against 0.83 for Union La Calera. Coquimbo Unido's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/1.57 for Union La Calera.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Coquimbo Unido at home · Union La Calera away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Coquimbo Unido 23, Union La Calera 22.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Coquimbo Unido
- at Audax Italiano8 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 36%
- vs Everton de Vina22 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 45%
- vs Deportes Limache29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 50%
Union La Calera
- vs Huachipato8 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 37%
- at Palestino22 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 19%
- vs Universidad de Concepcion29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 44%
- at Universidad de Chile6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 11%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.