Audax Italiano
vs
Huachipato
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Audax Italiano 1–0 Huachipato
The model makes it 45% Audax Italiano, 27% draw, 28% Huachipato — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Audax Italiano 1.60, Huachipato 1.16.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Audax Italiano are 12th on 28 points from 23 games; Huachipato are 10th on 31 points from 23 games — Primera División.
- Audax Italiano have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to O'Higgins.
- Huachipato are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to O'Higgins.
- Last 6 meetings: Huachipato 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 20 April 2026, ended Huachipato 3–2 Audax Italiano.
More Chilean Primera División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Audax Italiano vs Huachipato
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Audax Italiano at 45% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Audax Italiano vs Huachipato
Audax Italiano
- W1-0O'Higgins13 September 2026
- W1-0away to Concepción5 September 2026
- L1-5away to Colo Colo30 August 2026
- D0-0Union La Calera22 August 2026
- D1-1away to Everton de Vina16 August 2026
Huachipato
- W2-0O'Higgins10 October 2026
- W2-0away to Universidad de Concepcion2 October 2026
- D0-0Colo Colo6 September 2026
- L1-3Deportes Limache22 August 2026
- L1-5away to Palestino18 August 2026
What these results say
- Audax Italiano scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Audax Italiano had two goals or fewer.
- Huachipato scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Audax Italiano | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 28 |
| 10 | Huachipato | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Audax Italiano
Chance to finish in the bottom three
From our Primera División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Audax Italiano vs Huachipato
- 20 April 2026Huachipato 3–2 Audax ItalianoPrimera División
- 9 November 2025Huachipato 2–1 Audax ItalianoPrimera División
- 5 October 2025Huachipato 4–2 Audax ItalianoCopa Chile
- 29 September 2025Audax Italiano 1–0 HuachipatoCopa Chile
- 26 May 2025Audax Italiano 4–3 HuachipatoPrimera División
- 20 October 2024Audax Italiano 0–2 HuachipatoPrimera División
Leading scorers: Audax Italiano and Huachipato
Audax Italiano
GoalsAssists
- G. Chiaverano62
Huachipato
GoalsAssists
- L. Altamirano91
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Audax Italiano carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.35 for Huachipato. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.60 goals for Audax Italiano and 1.16 for Huachipato. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Audax Italiano rate 0.56 in attack and 1.47 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Huachipato rate 0.63 and 1.71.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Huachipato, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Audax Italiano the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Audax Italiano against 1.16 for Huachipato. Audax Italiano's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.71 for Huachipato.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Audax Italiano at home · Huachipato away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Audax Italiano 23, Huachipato 23.
Audax Italiano score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Huachipato have let in 10 there.
Huachipato score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); Audax Italiano have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Audax Italiano
- at Deportes Limache1 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 25%
- vs Coquimbo Unido8 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 36%
- at Cobresal22 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 32%
- vs Palestino29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 38%
Huachipato
- vs Deportes La Serena1 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 46%
- at Union La Calera8 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 34%
- vs Concepción22 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 36%
- at Universidad Catolica29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 19%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.